[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Dec 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10.5N14W to 07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 06N30W to
05N40W to the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Clusters of moderate
to isolated strong convection are from 01.5N to 10N between 07W
and 14W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between
17W and 24W, and from 02N to 05N between 48W and 51W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the Florida Keys across the
central Gulf to 25N90W to 24N96W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary. Scatterometer data
indicate fresh to strong NE to E winds in the wake of the front
while mainly moderate NE to E winds prevail S of the front. Seas
are 6 to 9 ft within the strongest winds N of the front. Seas of
5 to 7 ft are noted over the SW Gulf with seas of 3 to 5 ft
elsewhere across the basin. Strong high pressure of 1034 mb
follows the front and dominates the SE of the United States and
the northern Gulf waters.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate through Fri.
Another cold front will move into the far northern Gulf on Sat
afternoon, then stall, weaken and dissipate by early Mon. Fresh
to strong easterly winds are expected over the eastern Gulf
through early tonight while winds will increase across the Straits
of Florida and the SE Gulf. These winds will persist on Fri and
Fri night with seas building to 8 to 9 ft.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The most recent satellite derived wind data provide observations
of moderate to fresh trade winds over the eastern and Central
Caribbean, with fresh to locally strong NE winds in the lee of
eastern Cuba reaching beyond the Cayman Islands. Fresh NE winds
are also present in the Windward passage, south of Hispaniola
and offshore the NW coast of Colombia, where seas are likely
between 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft. Shallow
moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is moving westward
across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing
showers or brief showers.

For the forecast, Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across
the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through this afternoon.
Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in the Windward
Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight. Aerial coverage of the
strong winds will increase through Sat night as strong high
pressure remains north of the area. Winds will slowly diminish
through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the forecast waters near 31N70W, then continues
SW to the Florida Keys where it becomes stationary. A recent
satellite scatterometer pass reveals fresh to strong northerly
winds following the front, where seas are 6 to 8 ft based on
buoys observations. Mainly low clouds and possible showers are
associated with the frontal boundary. A surface trough remains
over the central Atlantic, and runs from 31N53W to near 13N52W.
Moderate to locally fresh winds are on either side of the trough
axis. An area of seas of 6 to 9 ft in N swell is near the northern
end of the trough axis and covers the waters N of 26N between
47W and 61W. Similar sea heights are also noted E of 50W reaching
the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
mainly on the E side of the trough covering the waters from
21N-30N between 42W-50W. This trough is likely the surface
reflection of a sharp upper-level trough extending near 50W. A
cut-off low is developing along this trough near 22N52W. Father
E, an area of fresh to strong E to SE winds is noted from 17N to
27N between 37W and 43W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast
waters is under the influence of a strong 1037 mb high pressure
located well N of the area near 43N40W. A weakening cold front is
over the Canary Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front
will reach from near 31N63W to South Florida tonight, then
become stationary near 25N by late Fri afternoon. High pressure
will build in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and
building seas across most of the forecast waters. Long-period
north to northeast swell will impact the waters between the
southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during the
weekend.

$$
GR
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