[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Dec 2 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast near
the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea border across 08N20W to 07N24W. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the
trough from 02N to 08N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and
22W. An ITCZ then continues from 07N24W across 08N40W to just
northeast of the French Guyana-Brazil border at 05N51W. Patchy
showers are present up to 140 nm north and 80 nm south of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weakening cold front extends westward from the western Atlantic
across the northwest Bahamas to near the Florida Keys, then
continues as a stationary front to the central Gulf. Patchy
showers are present along and up to 40 nm south of this boundary
between the Florida Straits and 89W. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen along and up to 40 nm south of the
stationary front west of 89W. A surface trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the western
edge of the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Coupling with
divergent winds aloft, convergent trades are causing scattered
showers and thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate
to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted across
the central, eastern and the northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the west-central
and southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary/cold front will
dissipate Fri. Another cold front will move into the far northern
Gulf Sat night, then stall, weaken and dissipate by early Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large dome of 1035 mb high over the Mid-Atlantic US States along
with a 1021 Bermuda High are sustaining NE to ENE trades across
the entire Caribbean Basin. Convergent trade winds are producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern
and west-central basin. Otherwise, fresh to strong trades and seas
of 6 to 8 ft are found south of Cuba and Hispaniola, near the
Windward Passage and north of northwest Colombia. Moderate to
fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident for the rest of
the northwest, west-central and central basin. Moderate trades
with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the eastern basin.

For the forecast, winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in
the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight. Aerial
coverage of the strong winds will increase through Sat night as
high pressure builds north of the area. Winds will slowly diminish
through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N65W
to the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers are occurring along
and up to 100 nm south of this front. A robust upper-level low
at the central Atlantic near 21N50W is producing scattered
moderate convection north of 20N between 41W and 52W. For
additional convection in the Atlantic Basin, read the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning.

Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are
evident from the cold front westward to the coast of Georgia and
Florida. Moderate to fresh NE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas exist
south of the cold front to the Greater Antilles between 60W and
the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh southeasterly trades and seas at 7
to 9 ft are present at the central Atlantic north of 18N between
35W and 50W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NE to SE trades with 5
to 7 ft seas are found north of 10N between the African coast and
the Lesser Antilles/60W. South of 10N, gentle to moderate
easterly trades and seas of 7 to 9 ft in southerly swell are noted
west of 25W. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 6 to 8
ft in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will
become stationary near 25N by Fri night. High pressure will build
in the wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas
across most of the forecast waters. Long-period N to NE swell
will impact the waters between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto
Rico with rough seas during the weekend.

$$

Chan
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