[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Dec 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Guinea near
10N14W to 07N22W. The ITCZ continues to 06N30W, to 05N40W, to
the coast of Brazil near 03N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between the west
coast of Africa and 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed from Naples, Florida westward about 300
nm to the central Gulf where it transitions to a stationary
front. The stationary front extends southwestward to near
Veracruz, Mexico. Recent buoy and platform observations found
fresh to strong NE to E winds  and 6 to 8 ft seas following the
front over the northern Gulf. Seas may peak up to 9 ft in the NW
Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to be within
60 nm of the boundary, as well as in the northwest Gulf offshore
the NE Mexico coast. Moderate E to SE winds are ahead of the
front with 3 to 5 ft seas, except within the Florida Straits
where there are fresh east winds.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from
near Fort Myers, Florida to 25N89W and to southern Texas by early
This evening, then gradually dissipate through Fri. Strong high
pressure building behind the front will shift eastward through
Fri as a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. This next
front may move over the far northern Gulf on Sat afternoon, then
stall, weaken and dissipate by early Mon. No significant impacts
on winds and seas are expected from this front. Fresh to strong
northeast to east winds will linger over the southeastern and
south-central Gulf waters Fri night through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass reveals moderate to fresh trade
winds over the eastern and Central Caribbean, with fresh NE
winds in the lee of Cuba over the Cayman Islands. Fresh winds
may also be present in the Windward passage, south of Hispaniola
,and offshore the NW coast of Colombia, where seas are likely
between 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4 to 6 ft. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are noted in the visible satellite
imagery in the NW Caribbean, closer to the Gulf of Honduras, and
south west of Jamaica.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail
across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea through this
afternoon. Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba, in the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight. Aerial
coverage of the strong winds will increase through Sat night as
high pressure builds north of the area. Winds will slowly
diminish through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from Nova Scotia southwestward over the
western Atlantic to Miami, FL. A recent satellite scatterometer
pass reveals fresh to strong N to NNE winds following the front,
where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted over the northern Bahamas and offshore south FL. Ahead
of the front, over the Bahamas and the western Atlantic waters
out to 50W NE winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 3 to 5
ft.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic, a large amplitude surface trough
stretches along 51W from 30N to 12N. Aided by a large upper
level trough, scattered convection continues east of this
surface feature from 20N to 30N between 40W and 52W. Fresh to
strong east winds due to the pressure gradient are noted from
15N to 28N between the trough axis and the west coast of Africa.
Seas continue to subside in this area west of 60W, ranging from
6 to 9 ft, peaking at 10 ft in the area of strongest winds from
18N to 25N between 35W and 42W. Elsewhere over the Atlantic,
moderate winds prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from
near 31N63W to South Florida tonight, then become stationary
near 25N by late Fri afternoon. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front, with increasing winds and building seas
across most of the forecast waters W of 65W. Long- period north
to northeast swell will impact the waters between the
southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas during the
weekend.


$$
Mora
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