[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011128
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Dec 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from  enters the Atlantic along
the coast of Sierra Leone near Freetown and to near 07N20W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 06N30W and to 03N44W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted within 180 nm south of the trough
between 13-20W, and also along the coast of Africa from 03N to
08N. Scattered moderate convection is present within 300 nm north
of the ITCZ between 30W-40W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ
between 40W-43W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is helping to
generate scattered showers and along the coast of southern Costa
Rica and northern Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is analyzed from Punta Gorda, Florida southwestward
to 25N90W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico. A recent
ASCAT data pass revealed a large area of northeast 20-30 kt winds
behind the front over the NW Gulf. Seas of 8-10 ft generated by
these winds are being reported by the buoys in the NW Gulf.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted near and up to
120 nm north of the front between 94W and the Mexican coast,
while isolated showers are possible along and near the remainder
of the front.

A recent ASCAT data pass revealed fresh to strong northeast winds
in the eastern Bay of Campeche associated with the Yucatan
Peninsula trough that moved offshore during the overnight hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over seen in the eastern
Bay of Campeche with this trough. This activity appears to be
further aided by a small upper impulse riding along the western
periphery of a broad upper-level anticyclone that extends from
the northwestern Caribbean Sea to the southwestern Gulf. The
present gradient in place supports gentle to moderate and locally
fresh northeast to east winds elsewhere. Seas of 3-5 ft are south
of the cold front, including the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall from
near Fort Myers, Florida to 25N89W and to southern Texas by early
This evening, then gradually dissipate through Fri. Strong high
pressure building behind the front will shift eastward through Fri
as a weak cold front approaches eastern Texas. This next front
may move over the far northern Gulf on Sat afternoon, then stall,
weaken and dissipate by early Mon. No significant impacts on winds
and seas are expected from this front. Fresh to strong northeast
to east winds will linger over the southeastern and south-central
Gulf waters Fri night through Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from near Bermuda to
near 20N70W. This feature continues to maintain a northeast to
east trade wind flow pattern across most of the Caribbean Basin.
Convergent trades are producing isolated thunderstorms near
Jamaica and Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong
northeast to east winds and seas of 6-8 ft are near the Windward
Passage, south of Cuba and just north of Barranquilla, Colombia.
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to ENE trades with 4 to 6
ft seas are observed across the eastern and central basin. Gentle
to moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 5-6 ft seas are
over the northwestern and southwestern sections of the basin. The
exception is gentle to moderate monsoonal winds along with 3-5 ft
seas just north of Panama.

For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will maintain moderate
to fresh trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea
through this afternoon. Winds will strengthen in the lee of Cuba,
in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola tonight. Aerial
coverage of the strong winds will increase through Sat night as
high pressure builds north of the area. Winds will slowly diminish
through Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from New England southwestward to 31N77W and
to inland central Florida near Melbourne, Florida. Fresh to
strong north to northeast winds, with seas to 8 ft are northwest
of the front. Isolated showers are possible near the front. A
stationary front is analyzed from 31N50W to 26N63W to 24N74W and
dissipating to the central Bahamas. Moderate to fresh northeast
winds, with seas of 8-12 ft in northeast swell are near and
northwest of the stationary front to 63W. Isolated showers are
seen near and up to 60 nm south of this boundary. A rather robust
upper-level trough extends from 31N49W to 20N52W and to a base
near 08N59W. An upper-level low appears to be forming along
the trough near 25N51W. An increasing area of scattered moderate
convection is noted from 22N to 32N between 44W-53W. A surface
trough is attended by low-level moisture, with possible isolated
showers east of Trinidad and Tobago from 07N to 15N between
51W-57W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional
weather in the Atlantic Basin.

Elsewhere, the gradient in place is allowing for gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds along with seas of 5-7 ft
south of 27N and west of 65W, and gentle to moderate southeast
to south winds between the stationary front and the aforementioned
cold front. Seas with these winds are 4-6 ft between 63W-70W, and
3-5 ft between 70W and the cold front as indicated in buoy
observations and latest altimeter data passes over those areas
of the western Atlantic. In the eastern part of the area, moderate
to fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 8-10 ft due to
mainly a long-period northwest swell are present from 15N to 26N
between the coast of the Africa and 46W. South of 21N and east of
49W to the coast of Africa, gentle to moderate northeast to east
trade winds are over these waters along with seas of 8-9 ft in a
northwest to north swell. Similar trade winds are over the central
section of the area south of 26N between 56W-75W, with seas of
4-6 ft. Fresh to strong northeast winds are at the entrance of the
Windward Passage and in the Windward Passage as well. Seas with
these winds are in the range of 5-7 ft, except for seas to 8 ft in
the Windward Passage.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front the extends
from 27N55W to 26N63W and dissipating to the central Bahamas will
will weaken and dissipate by late tonight. The cold front that
extends from 31N77W to inland central Florida near Melbourne will
reach from near 31N63W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida
tonight, then become stationary near 25N by late Fri afternoon.
High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with increasing
winds and building seas across most of the forecast waters W of
65W. Long-period north to northeast swell will impact the waters
between the southeastern Bahamas and Puerto Rico with rough seas
during the weekend.

$$
Aguirre
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