[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310900
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1007 mb low pressure located several hundred nautical
miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15N50W, is along a
tropical wave, moving W at around 5 kt. This area is producing a
large area of scattered moderate and isolates strong convection
from 08N to 18N between 47W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds are
noted in the northern and eastern quadrants. Seas are peaking
near 10 ft north of the low. Although environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of
this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast
to move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent
waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high
chance of development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest
Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center
at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 19W/20W,
south of 19N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is present from 10N to 20N and E of 24W. Some
gradual development is possible, and the system could become a
short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic
during the next couple of days. By late this week, environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for
further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally
heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through
Thursday. This feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone
development through 48 hours, and a medium chance of development
in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov for additional information.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of
22N, moving W at 15 kt. Limited convection is near the wave.

A southern Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 92W,
south of 21N, across SE Mexico, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted over the SW Gulf and across southern Mexico.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 10N32W to a 1007 mb low pres near
15N50W to 08N55W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves and special features section above, scattered moderate
convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 26W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches from the Florida panhandle to near
22N80W. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of this trough. High
pressure prevails elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds are over
the SW Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the
2-4 ft range over the SW Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
across the Gulf waters through Fri maintaining gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects
during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A moderate pressure gradient is supporting moderate to fresh
easterly trades across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the
central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Locally strong east winds may
pulse offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see above for more on an area of low pressure near 15N50W
with a chance to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Elsewhere, A 1018 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas
and Bermuda maintains tranquil weather conditions across the
western tropical Atlantic, with light to gentle anticyclonic
winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, prevailing W of 55W. Gentle to locally
fresh easterly trades are noted offshore northern Hispaniola and
similar S-SW winds offshore NE Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds
are occurring S of the monsoon trough and E of 25W to the African
coast, where seas of 7-10 ft. Farther north, fresh to strong NE
winds are noted over the waters offshore Morocco and Western
Sahara, and the passages of the Canary Islands, along with seas of
3-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 2-5
ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, an area of low pressure several
hundred miles E of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area
of showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions
are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of
this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to
form within the next couple of days. This system is expected to
move W and WNW and reach the far SE forecast zones late Thu into
Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much
of the area through the weekend.

$$
AL
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