[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 311606
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1008 mb low pressure located several hundred nautical
miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15N51W, is along a
tropical wave, moving W at around 5 kt. This system is producing
a large area of numerous moderate with isolated strong convection
from 14N to 17N between 48W and 51W. Fresh to strong winds are
noted in the northern semi-circle. Seas are peaking near 10 ft
north of the low. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this
system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form
within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to
move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters
of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium chance
of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance
over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

A broad 1009 mb low pressure located between the west coast of
Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands near 19N20W is along a tropical
wave, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 15N to 22N, between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde
Islands. Some gradual development is possible, and the system
could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far
eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. By late this
week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly
unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the system could
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through Thursday. This feature has a medium chance of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours and a medium chance over the
next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

A 1016 mb low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone
over the central subtropical Atlantic several hundred nautical
miles WSW of the Azores. The low pressure center is currently
near 37N47W moving E at around 5 kt. While this system is only
producing weak convection at this time, environmental conditions
are expected to become conductive for development, and a tropical
or subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days while the system drifts generally eastward. This feature has
a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours,
and a high chance of development over the next 5 days. Please
read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National
Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at
https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W, south of
21N, moving W at 10 kt. Convection is limited along the wave.

A southern Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 93W,
south of 20N, across S Mexico, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean, moving W at 10 kt. Convection is isolated and weak over the
Gulf.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 21N17W to
11N35W to 16N50W to 09N58W. A recent scatterometer pass found
fresh to locally strong SW winds south of the monsoon trough along
the coast of Africa. Outside of tropical wave activity, scattered
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 13N, between 22W and
35W, and from 09N to 13N, between 53W and 57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretches from the Florida panhandle to the
central Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is observed along
northern portion of this feature. A few widely isolated showers
and thunderstorms are also observed throughout the basin.
Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient is supporting favorable
marine conditions with gentle winds and slight seas across the
Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
across the Gulf waters through the weekend maintaining gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong winds within a
large area of thunderstorms south of Cuba. While these storms are
gradually weakening, moderate to fresh winds are likely near these
storms today. Another area of moderate convection is observed
from 12N to 15N, between 76W to 79W. Elsewhere, a moderate
gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over
the Colombian Basin is supporting moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the central
Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean Sea
will support moderate to fresh E trades across the S central
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more
information on areas of low pressure near 19N20W and 15N51W with
the potential to develop into tropical cyclones.

Elsewhere a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N66W is
dominating the pattern, creating light to gentle anticyclonic
winds and 2-4 ft seas in the western tropical Atlantic. A weak
cold front along the SE US coast is generating scattered moderate
convection north of 30N. In the eastern Atlantic, a tighter
pressure gradient is generating moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7
ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, shower and thunderstorm activity
are associated with an area of low pressure located several
hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Additional gradual
development of this system is expected and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next couple of days. The disturbance
is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, reaching the
far SE forecast waters west of 55W on Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through the
weekend.

$$
Flynn
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