[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310515
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A broad 1007 mb low pressure located several hundred nautical
miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15N50W, is along a
tropical wave near 50W, moving W at around 5 kt. This area is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
with numerous moderate and isolated strong convection noted from
08N to 18N and between 47W and 55W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds in the northern
and eastern quadrants. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in these waters.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive,
additional gradual development of this system is expected and a
tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-
northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward
Islands. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of development in
the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for
additional information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 19W, south of
19N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is present from 10N to 20N and E of 22W. Some gradual
development is possible, and the system could become a short-
lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the
next couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions
are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further
development. This feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone
development through 48 hours, and a medium chance of development
in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov for additional information.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of
22N, moving W at 20 kt. Divergence aloft results in scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 19N and between
75W and 80W.

A southern Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis along 91W,
south of 21N, across SE Mexico, Guatemala and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean, moving W at 15 kt. Strong showers and thunderstorms
have developed over E Yucatan and Guatemala, with some of
convection spilling into the E Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W to 10N31W to 17N47W to a 1007 mb low pres
near 15N50W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 04N to 13N and between 22W and 35W. A few showers are also
occurring near the monsoon trough between 37W and 45W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The Gulf of Mexico is in the southwestern periphery of the
subtropical ridge in the north Atlantic, allowing for a relaxed
pressure gradient across the basin. A weak surface trough
stretches from the Apalachee Bay to near 25N88W, sustaining a few
weak showers in the eastern Gulf. Storms that formed over
Louisiana have traveled southward and are affecting the nearshore
and offshore waters. Elsewhere, the weather conditions are
generally tranquil. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are
found S of 23N, while the rest of Gulf enjoys light to gentle
anticyclonic breezes. Seas are 1-2 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern
across the Gulf waters through Fri maintaining gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse
near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects
during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast
period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section,
the rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions. A moderate pressure gradient results in moderate to
fresh easterly trades across a good portion of the basin, with
weaker winds found in the lee of Cuba and SW Caribbean. Seas of
3-6 ft are prevalent in the Caribbean, except for 1-3 ft in the
lee of Cuba and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate
to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to
moderate winds elsewhere. Locally strong east winds may pulse
offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight and Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1018 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and
Bermuda maintains tranquil weather conditions across the western
tropical Atlantic, allowing for light to gentle anticyclonic winds
to prevail W of 55W. However, gentle to locally fresh easterly
trades are noted offshore northern Hispaniola and similar S-SW
winds offshore NE Florida. Seas W of 55W are 3-6 ft. Fresh to
strong SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough and E of
25W to the African coast. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft.
Farther north, fresh to strong NE winds are affecting the waters
offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, and the water passages of the
Canary Islands, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are
moderate or weaker and seas are 2-5 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, an elongated area of low pressure
several hundred miles E of the Lesser Antilles is producing a
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite only
marginally conducive environmental conditions, some gradual
development is expected over the next several days and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the next few days. This system
is expected to move W and WNW and reach the far SE forecast zones
late Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across much of the area through the weekend.

$$
DELGADO
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