[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302130
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

An elongated 1007 mb area of low pressure located several hundred
nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15N49W, is along
a tropical wave near 49W, moving west at around 5 kt. This area is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms,
with numerous moderate and isolated strong convection noted from
09N to 18N between 43W and 55W. Current associated winds are 20
to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Although environmental
conditions are only marginally conducive, some gradual development
of this system is expected over the next several days and a
tropical depression is likely to form later this week or this
weekend. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the
west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 kt, toward the adjacent
waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high
chance of development in the next 5 days.
Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 19W, from 06N to
19N, moving west at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 10N to 20N between the coast of Africa and 20W. Some
gradual development is possible, and the system could become a
short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic
during the next few days. By late this week, environmental
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for
further development. This feature has a low chance of tropical
cyclone development through 48 hours, and a medium chance of
development in the next 5 days. Regardless, the system could
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde
Islands on Wed. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov
for additional information.

A tropical wave that was previously analyzed in the central
Caribbean Sea along 74W has been re-analyzed to along 81W, near
western Cuba from 22N southward to across western Panama, moving
west at around 20 kt. Earlier morning upper-air soundings from
Jamaica, San Andres Island, Colombia, and the Cayman Islands all
indicated SE winds at 15 to 20 kt aloft, and visible satellite
imagery this afternoon contributed to the placement of the
tropical wave. In-house wave diagnostic tools also support this
placement along 81W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 74W and 83W,
enhanced by a upper-level low and mid-level troughing.

A tropical wave is along 90W, across the western Yucatan Peninsula
southward into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving west at around 15
kt. Convection is primarily over land, with isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 10N30W to 15N47W to 1007 mb elongated low pressure near
15N49W to 09N56W. In addition to the convection described above
and associated with the two Atlantic tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 20W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A relaxed pressure gradient is leading to favorable marine
conditions across the majority of the Gulf. A surface trough in
the NE Gulf is supporting an area of scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection from 22N to 30N, between 83W and 91W.
Outside of any thunderstorms, winds are light to gentle with 1-3
ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri maintaining
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due
to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the tropical waves section above for details on the
convection is the western Caribbean Sea.

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh easterly
trade winds across the eastern and central Caribbean, where seas
are 3-6 ft. Winds are moderate in the NW Caribbean with 2-4 ft
seas, and gentle in the SW Caribbean with mainly 1-3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the ridge north of the Caribbean Sea will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across the central
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Some locally
strong east winds may pulse offshore Colombia and Venezuela
tonight and Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An elongated area of low pressure over the central tropical
Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
through 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 5
days. Please see the Special Features section above for more
details.

In the western Atlantic, 1018 mb surface high pressure is analyzed
near 28N68W. Winds are rotating anticyclonically around this
feature with gentle to moderate speeds and 3-5 ft seas. In the
eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds dominate with 5-7 ft
seas, except locally strong through Canary Islands passages.
Fresh to strong SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough,
between the coast of Africa and 25W, where seas are 8-10 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the elongated area of low pressure
several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles
described in the Special Features section may reach the far SE
forecast zones late Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate
winds will prevail across much of the area through the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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