[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291757
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 46W/47W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. A low pressure of 1007 mb
is along the wave near 15N46W. This system is producing a large
area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that covers the waters
from 15N to 19N between 42W and 46W, and from 12N to 14N between
47W and 52W. Although environmental conditions are only marginally
favorable, some gradual development of this system is expected
over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly
toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 kt, toward the
adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Currently fresh
to strong winds and seas of up to 11 ft are associated with this
broad area of low pressure, that has a medium change of tropical
cyclone formation through 48 hours.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for additional
marine information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is nearing the coast of western Africa with axis
along 15W/16W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10
kt. A low pressure is along the wave axis near 14N15W. The wave
is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this evening or
early Tuesday. Some gradual development of this system is possible
after that time while it moves generally westward to west-
northwestward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic. There is
currently a low probability of tropical cyclone development within
the next 5 days.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 67W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. Convection is
limited near the wave axis.

Another tropical wave is moving across the NW Caribbean with axis
along 83W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Numerous
showers and thunderstorms are associated with the wave. A diffluent
pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea
near 11N15W to 10N30W to low pressure located near 15N46W to
11N53W. The ITCZ continues from 11N53W to 10N61W. Aside from
convection described in the Special Feature section above,
numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N
to 15N E of 24W to the coast of W Africa, and just W of the
tropical wave located inland along 15W/16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across the
Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed across northern Florida
and the NE Gulf, and extends from 31N80W to 27N86W. Some shower
and thunderstorm activity is near the trough axis. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the western Gulf with light to gentle
winds are observed over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft
range over the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters into Thu night maintaining
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due
to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends across the Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean
Sea. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure
over Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the
Central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas
are in the 4-5 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere. Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are
noted across the basin, particularly from 15N to 20N between 76W
and 82W. This convective activity is affecting the Cayman Islands
and parts of Jamaica, and is the result of a tropical wave
combined with upper-level diffluence. Winds and seas could be
higher near tstms.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A trough of low pressure could
develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of
the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. Please see
the Special Features section above for more details.

A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda
continues to produce limited shower activity.  Strong upper-level
winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of
this system while it drifts southward and southwestward over the
central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and likely
dissipate by the end of the week.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the tropical and
subtropical waters north of 20N with two 1021 mb high pressure
centers located ESE of Bermuda, and near 31N45W. Light to gentle
winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted roughly N of 27N under the
influence of the high pressure ridge while gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail S of 27N. Winds increase to
moderate to fresh speeds over the central Atlantic between the
ridge to the N and the low pressure located near 15N46W. Seas are
6-8 ft within this area of winds. Higher seas of 8-11 ft are near
the low pressure center.

Fresh to strong monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough
off western Africa, with seas of 7-10 ft. These winds are enhanced
by the tight pressure gradient associated with the low pressure
area over western Africa discussed above in the tropical waves
section.

For the forecast W of 55W, an area of low pressure will move into
the far SE forecast zones toward the end of the week, possibly as
a tropical cyclone. This low will bring an increase in winds and
seas to these forecast zones. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across much of the area through the week.

$$
GR
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