[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A tropical wave has its axis near 45W/46W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Low pressure is along the
wave near 14.5N45.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 40W and 50W. A 1021 mb
high pressure center is north of the area of low pressure near
32N44W. This is producing a tight pressure gradient that is
supporting strong to near gale force winds within 240 nm north of
the low. Frequent gusts to gale force, and seas to 12 ft, are
occurring over this area. Although environmental conditions ahead
of the system are currently only marginal favorable, some gradual
development of this system is expected over the next several days
and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then
west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the waters east and
northeast of the Leeward Islands.

Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. Please read the
latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center,
at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for additional
marine information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is nearing the coast of western Africa near
15W/16W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Low
pressure is along the wave axis near 14.5N15.5W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N
between 12W and 20W. Some gradual development of the system is
possible after that time while it moves generally westward across
the far eastern tropical Atlantic. There is currently a low
probability of tropical cyclone development within the next 5
days.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 62W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Isolated convection is
in the vicinity of this wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 82WW, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 21N between 77W
and 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 13N17W to 12N20W to low pressure near 14.5N45.5W to 11N53W.
The ITCZ continues from 11N53W to 10N60W. Aside from convection
noted in the tropical waves and special feature section above,
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
03N to 12N between 20W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to
fresh winds prevail over the western Gulf with gentle to moderate
winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the
western Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Thu maintaining
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due
to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge of high pressure extends across the Atlantic waters north
of the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
low pressure over Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh winds
over the Central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the central
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A trough of low pressure could
develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle
part of this week. Environmental conditions could support some
slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see special features section above for the chance of
tropical cyclone development associated with an area of low
pressure near 14.5N45.5W.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the tropical and
subtropical waters north of 20N. Fresh to locally strong winds
are found north of Hispaniola, with gentle to moderate winds
prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 75W,
and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong monsoon flow prevails south
of the monsoon trough off western Africa, with seas of 7-10 ft.
These winds are enhanced by the tight pressure gradient associated
with the low pressure area over western Africa discussed above in
the tropical waves section. Elsewhere, over the tropical waters
south of 20N, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft
prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, an area of low pressure will move into
the far SE forecast zones toward the end of the week, possibly as
a tropical cyclone. This low will bring an increase in winds and
seas to these forecast zones. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across much of the area through the week.

$$
AL
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