[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning:

A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 14N45W. A tropical wave is
along 45W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to
10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is
within a 400 nm radius of the 1007 mb low pressure center. The
sea heights range from 10 feet to 12 feet within 180 nm of the
center to the NNW. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet
in the remainder of the area that is within a 440 nm radius of
the 1007 mb low pressure center. Strong to near gale-force
winds, with gusts to gale-force, are from 16N to 17N between 46W
and 47W. The current environmental conditions that are ahead of
the system are only marginal favorable. Some gradual development
of this system is expected during the next several days. It is
likely for a tropical depression to form later this week. The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then
west-northwest 5 to 10 mph, in the direction of the waters that
are to the east and northeast of the Leeward Islands. The chance
of formation into a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours is
medium. Please, read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook, that
is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
www.hurricanes.gov.  Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast
that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for additional
marine information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 61W, from 21N southward, moving
westward about 10 knots. The tropical wave is on top of the
islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 480 nm on either side of
the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots.  Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm on either side of
the tropical wave. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers
the Caribbean Sea from the Windward Passage westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 13N17W, to 11N20W 12N35W, to the 1007 mb low pressure
center that is along the 45W tropical wave, to 11N53W. The ITCZ
continues from 11N53W to 10N60W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is from 03N to 15N from the 45W
tropical wave eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow is in the Gulf of
Mexico. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the
eastern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A
weak surface ridge NE-to-SW oriented surface ridge extends from
the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near
20N97W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 30N
northward between 79W and 92W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong is in the coastal waters of NE
Florida. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
SE corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 25N84W.

Gentle to moderate SE winds are in the Gulf of Mexico. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the western half of the
Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet in
the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. It is possible for the
wind speeds to be faster, and the sea heights to be higher, near
the convective precipitation.

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern
across the Gulf waters through Thu maintaining gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to
local effects during the late afternoons and at night through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward from 60W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights that
range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are in the central and eastern
sections of the Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle trade winds, and
sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the western
Caribbean Sea.

The monsoon trough is along 11N/12N from 75W at the coast of
Colombia beyond the border areas of Costa Rica and Nicaragua,
into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: numerous strong
is at the eastern end of the monsoon trough from 09N to 12N
between 74W and 76W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough.

A ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh
trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. A trough of low pressure could develop in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of
the system thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea and the
Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward from 60W westward.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the
area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.

An upper level trough is about 900 nm to the north of the 1007
mb SPECIAL FEATURES section low pressure center. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 26N
northward between 46W and 50W.

Gentle to moderate anticyclonic wind flow are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean, away from the 45W tropical wave. The sea
heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 25N northward from 55W
westward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The comparatively highest sea
heights are reaching 7 feet in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse between the
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola tonight.  Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail elsewhere.

$$
mt/al
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