[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282307
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic Gale Warning: An Atlantic Ocean
tropical wave has its axis near 45W, from 23N southward, moving
westward at 5-10 kt. A 1007 mb surface low is analyzed along the
wave axis near 14N45W. Scattered showers are noted from 13N-18N
between 40W-50W. Recent satellite- derived wind data indicate
that the system is producing winds to near gale force, but the
circulation remains elongated with an ill-defined center.
Although environmental conditions ahead of the system do not
appear conducive for significant development, a tropical
depression, at the very least, is likely to form later this week
while moving slowly toward the west and then west- northwest at 5
to 10 kt, toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward
Islands.

A Gale Warning is in effect for this system due to frequent
gusts expected to reach gale force.

The chance of tropical cyclone formation of the system is MEDIUM
(40%) through 48 hours, and HIGH (70%) through five days.

Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the
National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. For additional
marine information, please see the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 59W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 kt. There is no significant
convection in the vicinity of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 77W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted SE
of Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Eastern Atlantic near 12N17W to the
Special Feature wave/low. Scattered moderate convection is from
04N to 15N and E of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is evident in the NW Gulf N of 22N
and W of 88W. A surface trough is analyzed within this activity
from 27N92W to 25N95W. To the east, scattered to numerous
moderate convection has developed over the Florida Peninsula and
western half of Cuba due to daytime heating. Some of this
activity is moving offshore across the SE Gulf waters S of 27N
and E of 87W. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the
remainder of the basin. SCatterometer data depicts gentle to
moderate SE winds across the basin, with seas of 2-4 ft in the
western Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the eastern Gulf. Winds and seas
could be higher near convection.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Thu maintaining
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula
due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night
through the forecast period. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are over the western Gulf mainly N of 22N and W of 90W. Winds and
seas could be higher near tstms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the central and
eastern Caribbean with light to gentle trades over the western
Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft range in the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, the ridge N of the Caribbean will continue to support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A trough of low pressure
could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the
middle part of this week. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves
generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on the
Gale Warning for a tropical wave/low with a MEDIUM chance of
tropical development over the next 48 hours and a HIGH chance of
development over the next five days.

Refer to the section above for details on the other tropical
wave moving across the basin.

Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted across the
Florida Peninsula and western Cuba. This activity is approaching
the adjacent waters mainly W of 78W. To the east, a surface
trough is analyzed from 31N47W to 27N51W. Scattered showers are
noted along the trough. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
prevails across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft
north of 25N and west of 55W. 4-6 ft seas persist elsewhere,
becoming locally 7 ft in the far eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong easterly winds will
pulse between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola tonight,
and again Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will
prevail.

$$
ERA
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