[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281751
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Aug 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Tropical Atlantic: An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis
near 44W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 5-10 knots. 1009
mb low pressure is along the axis at 14.5N44W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 13N to 17N between 44W and 48W. The latest
scatterometer data depicts strong to near-gale force NE winds
north of the low pressure from 14N to 18N between 42W and 47W.
Fresh NE winds are from 13N to 22N between 41W and 48W. Seas are
8-11 ft in these areas, with the analysis supported by this
morning's satellite altimeter passes. The circulation remains
elongated with an ill-defined center. Although environmental
conditions ahead of the system do not appear conducive for
significant development, a tropical depression, at the very least,
is likely to form later this week while moving slowly toward the
west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the waters
east and northeast of the Leeward Islands. The chance of tropical
cyclone formation is MEDIUM (40%) through 48 hours and HIGH (70%)
through five days. Please see the latest Tropical Weather Outlook
issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. For
additional marine information, please see the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 44W, from 22N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. For more information
about this tropical wave, please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section
above.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 58W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. There is no significant
convection in the vicinity of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 77W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered showers are noted
SE of Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through Dakar, Senegal near 15N17W to
12N21W to 1009 mb low pressure near 14.5N44W to 11N52W. Aside from
convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate
convection is from 06N to 13N between 20W and 31W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 11N east of
20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is evident in the NW Gulf from 21N
to 27N between 91W and 96W. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails
across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE winds are over
the western Gulf with gentle SSE winds over the eastern Gulf.
Seas are 2-4 ft in the western Gulf and 1-3 ft in the eastern
Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher near convection.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Wed maintaining
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due
to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through
the forecast period. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are over
the west-central Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to locally fresh trades prevail over the central and
eastern Caribbean with light to gentle trades over the western
Caribbean. Seas are 3-5 ft range in the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support
gentle to moderate trade winds across much of the basin through
Tue. A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of the system
thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
tropical wave with a MEDIUM chance of development over the next
48 hours and a HIGH chance of development over the next five days.

Scattered moderate convection is noted from the north coast of
Cuba north to the Bahamas near 24N between 76W and 78W. Scattered
showers are noted near a surface trough in the far NW discussion
waters off the coast of NE Florida. Outside of the tropical wave
described in the SPECIAL FEATURES section, gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are
2-4 ft north of 25N and west of 55W. 4-6 ft seas persist
elsewhere, becoming locally 7 ft in the far eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong easterly winds will
pulse between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola the next
couple of days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

$$
Mahoney
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net