[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280901
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 42W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Low pressure has
developed along the wave near 14N42W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 12N to 20N between 40W and 48W.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive
for gradual development of the system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of the week while it moves west-
northwestward at around 10 kt toward the waters east of the
Leeward Islands.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 56W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. There is no significant
deep convection in the vicinity of the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 76W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 knots. There is limited convection
near this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania
near 17N16W to 15N21W to low pres near 14N42W to 11N52W. Aside
from convection noted in the tropical waves section above,
scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from
03N to 14N between 11W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds are over the western Gulf with gentle winds over
the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the western
Gulf and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Wed maintaining
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due
to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the central and eastern
Caribbean with light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the central and eastern
Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support
gentle to moderate trade winds across much of the basin through
Tue. A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of the week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of
the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N67W to 26N71W. High pressure
prevails over the remainder of the tropical and subtropical waters
north of 20N. Gentle winds are noted north of 26N and west of 27W,
with moderate to locally fresh winds prevailing elsewhere north of
20N. Seas of 1-3 ft are found west of 72W, with 3-6 ft seas
covering much of the remainder of the waters north of 20N.

Over the tropical waters south of 20N, a 1009 mb low pressure
center has developed along a tropical wave near 14N42W. High
pressure of 1022 mb is centered north of this low near 32N41W. The
pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to
strong winds, within 330 nm N of the low. Seas of 7-10 ft are
noted within this area of fresh to strong winds. Outside of this
area, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, prevail south
of 20N.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong easterly winds will
pulse between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola the next
couple of days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

$$
AL
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