[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Aug 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 18N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to the west of the
tropical wave from 15N to 17N. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is elsewhere within 540 nm on either side of the tropical
wave. The precipitation that is near this tropical wave has
become a little better organized since yesterday. The
environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable
for additional gradual development during the next several days.
It is possible that a tropical depression may form by the middle
of next week, as it moves west-northwestward 10 to 15 mph toward
the waters that are to the east of the Leeward Islands.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 21N
southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either
side of the tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 10 knots.  Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 400 nm to the east of the tropical
wave, and elsewhere from the tropical wave westward. Scattered
moderate to strong is between the NW Cuba and La Isla de la
Juventud. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea from the tropical wave westward. An upper level
cyclonic circulation center is just to the north of the Gulf of
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal
near 14N17W, to 14N39W 11N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within 480 nm to the
south of the monsoon trough from 30W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Cyclonic wind flow covers the western one-third of the Gulf of
Mexico, from an upper level trough. Precipitation: broken to
overcast multilayered clouds, and weakening but lingering
precipitation, cover the central three-fourths of the area.
Isolated moderate precipitation is in the coastal waters of the
western parts of Florida. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, away from the upper
level trough.

An inland Mexico NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes through
22N101W to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is
from 20N southward, including in Mexico, from the western parts
of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of
southern Mexico, between 90W and 100W.

A surface trough covers the U.S.A. coastal plains from SE
Louisiana into central Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast
multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are in the
remainder of the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward.

A surface ridge extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico, into the
central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the
area, near 20N97W at the coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic winds, and slower speeds, cover the area. The sea
heights are 3 feet or less.

High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern in
the Gulf of Mexico through Wed, maintaining gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will
pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local
effects during the late afternoons and at night through the
forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Mostly fresh to some strong NE to E winds are from the 75W
tropical wave eastward. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are
from the 75W tropical wave westward. in the eastern half of the
area. Gentle to moderate winds, and slower speeds, cover the
rest of the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet
from the 75W tropical wave eastward, from 1 foot to 3 feet from
the 75W tropical wave westward.

The monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W, from Colombia beyond
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to
the south of the monsoon trough.

A ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support gentle to moderate
trade winds across much of the basin through Tue. A trough of
low pressure could develop in the northwestern Caribbean Sea
during the early or middle part of next week. Environmental
conditions could support some slow development of
the system thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 35W
westward. Some upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from
the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N southward, near the 41W
tropical wave, toward the north. The upper level cyclonic wind
flow is related to a 27N47W cyclonic circulation center, and to
a 24N72W cyclonic circulation center. Three separate surface
troughs are in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N
northward from 35W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind
flow is from 20N northward from 34W eastward.

The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet within 660 nm to
the east of the 41W tropical wave, from 06N to 23N. The wave
heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean from 70W eastward. The wave heights range from 2
feet to 3 feet from 70W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are
from 14N to 21N between 40W and 45W, around the 41W tropical
wave. Southerly moderate to fresh winds are from 12N southward
between 35W and 45W. Strong to near-gale northerly winds are
from 19N to 22N within 210 nm of the coast of Africa. Moderate
to fresh northerly winds are from 15N to 27N between 24W and 60W
eastward, from the monsoon trough northward from 24W eastward;
and winds from the SW and W from the monsoon trough southward
from 20W eastward, and from the SW from 10W eastward. Moderate
wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse between the
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola during the next couple of
days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail.

$$
mt/al
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