[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 41W,
from 05N to 20N, moving westward about 10-15 knots. Scattered
moderate convection is from 14N to 20N between 35W and 48W.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable
for some gradual development of this system over the next several
days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next
week as it moves WNW at 8 to 13 kt toward the waters east of the
Leeward Islands. The chance of formation is low through 48 hours
and medium through five days.

A tropical wave has its axis near 55W, from 06N to 20N, moving W
about 10-15 knots. Currently, there is no significant convection
in the vicinity of this wave.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis near 78W, S
of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is in the SW Caribbean and in the Windward passage
between E Cuba and Jamaica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Senegal near 15N17W to 15N35W to 10N51W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is off the coast of W Africa from 03N to 16N
between 04W and 27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

With generally low pressure along Mexico and the Bermuda High
ridge extending just E of the Bahamas, the Gulf remains in a weak
pressure gradient that continue to support light to gentle
variable winds E of 90W with seas to 2 ft. Over the western basin,
a surface trough extending from 21N94W to 25N91W supports heavy
showers and scattered tstms from 20N to 26N between 89W and 95W.
It is also supporting moderate to fresh SE winds with seas to 5 ft
in the NW basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Wed maintaining
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to
E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due
to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through
the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough crossing central Hispaniola to the offshore
waters of NW Colombia and a tropical wave along 78W are supporting
scattered showers in the central Caribbean. With the Bermuda High
extending to just E of the Bahamas, light to locally moderate
winds dominate the western half of the basin while a tighter
pressure gradient to the east support moderate to locally fresh
trade winds with seas to 4 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support
gentle to moderate trade winds across much of the basin through
Tue. A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of next week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of
the system thereafter while it moves generally WNW over the
NW Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle-level trough is supporting scattered showers and tstms N
of the northern Bahamas and W of 73W. The remainder subtropical
Atlantic remains under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High,
which is supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds S of
24N and W of 55W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere
across the subtropical waters except for fresh to strong NE winds
between W Africa and the Canary Islands. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in the
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic and 3 to 5 ft W of 55W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between
building high pressure across the region and the passage of a
tropical wave across the central Caribbean will support pulsing
fresh to strong easterly winds between the southeastern Bahamas
and Hispaniola over the next couple of days. Elsewhere, gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail.

$$
Ramos
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