[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 47W/48W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. A broad 1008 mb area of low
pressure is along the tropical wave near 14.5N47.5W. A large area
of disorganized cloudiness and showers is present with scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 14N to 20N
between 41W and 48W, and also from 11N to 15N between 49W and 56W.
Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive,
some gradual development of this system is expected over the next
several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later
this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the
west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 kt, toward the adjacent
waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Currently, fresh to strong
winds and seas of up to 11 ft are associated with this broad area
of low pressure, that has a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at
www.hurricanes.gov. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional
marine information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along the west coast of Africa near
16W from 18N southward, moving west around 10 kt. A 1006 mb low
pressure area is along the tropical wave near 12N16W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 17N
between 14W and 31W. Some gradual development of this system is
possible after that time while it moves generally westward to
west-northwestward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic. There
is a low chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 5
days.

A tropical wave has its axis in the eastern Caribbean Sea near
68W/69W, from 20N southward across the eastern Dominican Republic
to Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Deep convection is
limited near the tropical wave axis.

A tropical wave has its axis in the NW Caribbean Sea near 83W/84W
from 21N southward across western Cuba to across eastern Honduras
and Nicaragua, and Costa Rica, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. A
diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection from 12N to 19N between 76W and
83W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Africa near
the border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau from 12N16W to 10N27W to
1008 mb low pressure near 14.5N47.5W to 11N54W. The ITCZ extends
from 11N54W to 10N61W. Aside from convection described in the
Special Features section above, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 36W and 42W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed from just north of Tampa Bay, Florida
to 26N87W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring across portions of the eastern Gulf. Similar convection
is occurring in the northwest Gulf north of 26N and west of 94W
due to a mid-level disturbance. Otherwise, weak high pressure
controls the remainder of the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate
winds and 2-4 ft seas are in the western Gulf, with light to
gentle winds and 1-2 ft in the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Thu night
maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the west of the
Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons
and at night through the forecast period.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A ridge extends across the Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean
Sea. The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends across the
SW Caribbean Sea from 12N84W to 10N75W. The pressure gradient
between the ridging north of the area and lower pressures with the
monsoon troughs supports mainly moderate trades north of the
monsoon trough, with gentle to light winds south of the monsoon
trough. Seas are 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 1-2 ft south of
the monsoon trough. In addition to convection described in the
tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 70W and 76W
due to upper-level diffluence. Winds and seas could be higher
near thunderstorms.

For the forecast, a ridge north of the Caribbean Sea will support
moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and
gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A trough of low pressure could
develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of
the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone
development within the next 5 days with this feature.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic
has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. Please see
the Special Features section above for more details.

A small 1017 mb low pressure system located about 600 nautical
miles east of Bermuda near 31N54W continues to produce limited
shower activity. A surface trough extends from the low to 28N59W
with scattered showers and thunderstorms along the trough.
Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit
significant development of this system while it drifts southward
and southwestward over the central Atlantic during the next couple
of days, and likely dissipate by the end of the week. There is a
low chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 5 days
with this feature.

Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the tropical and
subtropical waters north of 20N. Light to gentle winds and seas
of 3-4 ft are noted roughly north of 27N and east of 70W to 25W
under the influence of the high pressure, while gentle to
moderate winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere south of 27N
and west of 25W. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are offshore Africa
to 20W north of 20N and south of the Canary Islands. Fresh to
strong monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough off
western Africa to 25W, with seas of 7-11 ft. These winds are
enhanced by the tight pressure gradient associated with the low
pressure area along a tropical wave near the coast of west Africa
discussed above in the tropical waves section.

For the forecast west of 55W, a broad area of low pressure
currently over the central tropical Atlantic is likely to develop
into a tropical depression later this week, as described in the
Special Features section. It is forecast to move into the far SE
forecast zones Thu or Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across much of the area into the weekend.

$$
Lewitsky
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