[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230409
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Aug 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 34W, from 03N to
20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Convection has decreased this
evening, though weak showers still surround the wave. A recent
scatterometer pass revealed broad circulation and a 1010 mb low
is analyzed along the wave near 16N. Environmental conditions
appear marginally favorable and this disturbance has a low (30%)
probability of tropical cyclone development through 5 days.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W, from 03N to
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed
from 05N to 12N, between 50W and 56W.

A Caribbean tropical wave extends along 83W, from 02N to 20N,
moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
in the SW Caribbean from 09N to 15N, between 73W and 83W. The
analyzed position changed little from the 1800 UTC analysis.
Surface and upper air observations indicated the wave axis
remains between The Cayman Islands and San Andres Island.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of northern Senegal
near 16N16W to 11N43W. The ITCZ continues from 11N43W to 11N51W,
where the convergent flow is interrupted by a tropical wave. The
ITCZ continues west of the wave from 10N55W to 10N61W along the
coast of Venezuela. Isolated moderate convection is observed
from 05N to 10N, between 39W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary boundary across Texas is triggering an outflow
boundary that is bringing numerous thunderstorms to SE Texas
tonight. These storms will likely be over the coastal waters by
Wednesday morning. A surface trough across Florida is generating
similar convection within 60 nm of the coast. Convection
associated with an approaching tropical wave in the Caribbean is
triggering scattered moderate convection in the Yucatan Channel.
Isolated weak convection is also observed throughout the NE
Gulf. Outside of thunderstorm activity, high pressure centered
near the Mississippi/Alabama border is causing mainly gentle
anticyclonic flow throughout the basin. Moderate to fresh winds
are likely near the Yucatan Peninsula and along the coast of
Mexico and Texas. Seas are generally 1-3 ft throughout the basin.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain over
the area through the forecast period, maintaining gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects
will pulse from the late afternoons and at night through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with a tropical wave is evident across the
SW Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also
observed in the Yucatan Channel, Windward Passage and across the
Leeward Islands. The pressure gradient is fairly weak across the
basin, with gentle to moderate trade winds throughout the basin.
Seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle
to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends along 62W, from 19N to 29N. This
feature is causing scattered moderate convection and moderate to
fresh winds within 300 nm of the trough axis. Elsewhere across
the Atlantic subtropical waters, the Bermuda-Azores High remains
the main feature, which is supporting generally gentle to
moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas. In the
eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient is supporting
fresh to strong NE winds between the Canary Islands and NW
Africa, building seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the surface trough located along 62W
will move westward toward the Bahamas Tue and Wed accompanied by
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas
could be higher near thunderstorms. High pressure will build in
the wake of the trough allowing for generally gentle to moderate
E to SE flow beginning on Wed.

$$
Flynn
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