[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Aug 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W from 04N
to 21N, with weak low pressure of 1010 mb near 16N36W. It is
moving westward around 20 kt. Satellite imagery depicts a rather
broad cyclonic circulation with this system, with very minimal
convection. Only rather small isolated showers and thunderstorms
are within 60 nm of the low, and within 240 nm west of the wave
from 07N to 10N. Environmental conditions appear marginally
conducive for gradual development during the next several days
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the
tropical Atlantic.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W from 03N
to 21N moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is confined to within 120 nm east of the wave
from 08N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm
west of the wave from 07N to 09N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W south of
21N well into the eastern Pacific waters near 02N. It is moving
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is confined to the far southwestern Caribbean where the
eastern part of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is present.
This convection exists from 09N to 14N between the wave and 80W.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere between
72W and the wave, including the waters adjacent to Jamaica and
the Cayman Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of northern
Senegal near 16N16W to 17N30W, to the 1010 mb low near 16N36W and
continues southwestward to 11N44W, to 10N50W and to near 08N58W.
Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the trough between
17W-21W, 43W-47W and within and from 06N to 10N between 50W-52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An outflow boundary is just inland the Texas coast early this
morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms out ahead of this
boundary are over some sections of the Texas and southwest
Louisiana coastal waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
that earlier were over the eastern Gulf offshore Florida have
dissipated. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms
are over some areas of the eastern Gulf. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are over the western part of the Straits
of Florida moving westward as well as over the Yucatan Channel
ahead of an approaching Caribbean tropical wave. Otherwise,
relatively weak high pressure across the area is allowing for
mainly gentle anticyclonic flow throughout the basin as noted in
recent and current buoy observations and in overnight ASCAT data
passes. Moderate to fresh winds are likely near the Yucatan
Peninsula and along the coast of Mexico and Texas. Seas are
generally 1-3 ft throughout the basin.

For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain over
the area through the forecast period, maintaining gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects
will pulse from the late afternoons and at night through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convection associated with a tropical wave is over the
southwestern section of the sea as described above. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are in the Yucatan Channel
in its vicinity. Similar activity is in the Windward Passage
and between the Windward Passage and Jamaica. Isolated showers
are over sections of the eastern Caribbean. The pressure gradient
remains fairly weak across the basin, with gentle to moderate
trade winds throughout the basin. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range.
A recent altimeter data pass confirmed these seas over the
central Caribbean section.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will
continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern
and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle
to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed along 63W from 19N to 29N. The
trough is underneath a large upper-level low that is centered
near 24N64W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are observed from 20N to 29N between 60W-66W. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms have recently crossed south of 31N between
76W-80W. This activity is being driven by a vigorous shortwave
trough that is advancing eastward from the Carolina coast to just
offshore southeastern Georgia. The showers and thunderstorms are
quickly moving eastward. They may be attendant by strong gusty
winds and frequent lightning. Elsewhere across the Atlantic
subtropical waters, the Bermuda-Azores High remains the main
feature. This is supporting generally gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and slight to moderate seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a
tighter pressure gradient between the high pressure and low
pressure over northwestern Africa is supporting fresh to strong NE
winds between the Canary Islands and NW Africa. Seas are
presently peaking to 8 ft with these winds.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will move westward toward the Bahamas through late Wed
accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Winds and seas may be higher in and near scattered showers and
thunderstorms. High pressure will build in the wake of the trough
allowing for generally a gentle to moderate E to SE flow beginning
on Wed.

$$
Aguirre
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