[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Tue Aug 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 31W, from 07N to 20N, moving westward
from at 10-15 knots. A 1010 mb low is associated with this wave
and it is centered near 16N31W. Isolated showers are from 10N to
19N between 25W and 39W.

A tropical wave is along 52W, from 04N to 20N, moving westward
at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 11N
between 48W and 58W.

A tropical wave is along 82W, extending S of 19N into the E
Pacific waters, and moving westward at 10-15 knots. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is S of 15N between 74W and
84W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 15N to 19N
between 74W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 17N28W to 10N43W. The
ITCZ begins near 10N43W and continues along 10N51W resuming W of
tropical wave at 10N54W and ending near 09N61W. For information on
convection, see the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle level trough and abundant moisture inflow from the
Caribbean is supporting scattered showers in the northern Gulf and
western Florida coastal waters. A weak pressure gradient prevails
in the region, which is supporting mainly light to gentle variable
winds and slight seas of 1 to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region through
the forecast period, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected near and
to the W of the Yucatan peninsula tonight due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers are across the western Caribbean due to the
passage of a tropical wave that will be entering Central America
tonight and an upper level low located over eastern Cuba. The
strongest convection is over the SW basin since the convection is
being enhanced by the E Pacific monsoon trough. Shower activity is
also happening over the NE and SE Caribbean, including the Lesser
Antilles. This activity is being driven mainly by a middle to
upper level elongated low centerd just NE of Puerto Rico. There is
a weak pressure gradient across the basin, which is maintaining
gentle to locally moderate trade winds and slight seas of 1 to 3
ft.

For the forecast, surface ridging north of the area will continue
to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and
central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to
moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda-Azores High is the main feature across the Atlantic
subtropical waters, which is supporting generally gentle to
moderate NE to E winds with slight to moderate seas, except
between the Canary Islands and NW Africa where a tighter pressure
gradient support fresh to strong NE winds and seas to 8 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a surface trough located along 62W/63W
will move westward toward the Bahamas Tue and Wed accompanied by
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Winds and seas
could be higher near thunderstorms. High pressure will build in
the wake of the trough producing a gentle to moderate E to SE flow
beginning on Wed.

$$
Ramos
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