[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162127
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Aug 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 38W, from 21N
southward, moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate
isolates strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 33W
and 40W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 76W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm west of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 83W, from 20N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 80W
and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N20W to 09N34W to 07N47W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N
to 12N between 12W and 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure of 1016 mb is centered near 27N91W. Light winds are
in the vicinity of the high center. Light to gentle winds are
elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Seas are in the 3-4 ft over the
western Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in the north-central
Gulf through tonight. A front will sink S and settle north of
the northern Gulf tonight and linger in this area through Thu.
This will increase winds across the northeast and north-central
Gulf with moderate westerly winds. Moderate NE to E winds north
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the
late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. Otherwise, a
tropical wave currently located over Nicaragua is forecast to
move across Central America during the next few days and emerge
over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could
form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is
possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across the region,
supporting gentle to moderate winds. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range
over the central Caribbean as well as in the Gulf of Honduras.
Seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will
strengthen modestly through Fri night. This will bring a return
of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 27N64W to 20N66W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough, along
with light winds. High pressure prevails elsewhere north of 20N.
Winds across the discussion waters are in the gentle to moderate
range. Seas in the 1-3 ft range are noted over the waters west of
70W, with seas in the 3-5 ft range elsewhere.

For the forecast W of 55W, a frontal boundary will approach the
NE Florida waters tonight and linger across the region through
Thu, which will maintain active weather N of 28N and E of the
boundary through midweek. High pressure will reestablish in the
SW N Atlantic waters Wed through Fri and lift northward Sat.

$$ AL
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