[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170455
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Aug 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0444 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W, south of
20N, moving W at 15 knots. No deep convection is associated with
this feature.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 79W, south of
20N, moving W at 15 knots. A few showers are noted within 60 nm
west of the wave axis.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W, south of
20N, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is observed from 14N to 19N and between 81W and 86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N16W to 08N25W to 10N41W to 06N51W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 15N
and E of 25W. A few showers are noted from 03N to 10N and between
31W and 39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure regime continues to dominate the Gulf of
Mexico, promoting fairly tranquil weather conditions across the
basin. Moderate to locally fresh ENE-NE winds are found offshore
NW and W Yucatan peninsula, while light to occasionally moderate
anticyclonic winds are noted elsewhere. Seas of 3-4 ft are
occurring in the Bay of Campeche and W Gulf waters, while 1-3 ft
prevail in the remainder of the Gulf.

For the forecast, a 1015 high pressure centered near 28N92W will
remain in the north-central Gulf through tonight. A stalled front
across the NE Gulf coast states will sink S and settle north of
the northern Gulf tonight and linger in this area through Thu.
This will increase winds across the northeast and north-central
Gulf with moderate westerly winds. Moderate NE to E winds north
and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the
late afternoons and evenings through the weekend. Otherwise, a
tropical wave currently located over Nicaragua is forecast to
move across Central America during the next few days and emerge
over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could
form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is
possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico through the weekend.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside from the convection discussed in the Tropical Waves section,
weakening evening storms over Hispaniola are spilling over the
neighboring waters. The rest of the basin enjoys tranquil weather
conditions. A weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker
easterly trade winds across the basin, except for locally fresh to
strong trades off N Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela and the
Gulf of Honduras. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range in the south-
central Caribbean as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 1-3
ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, two tropical waves in the western Caribbean are
generating numerous thunderstorms across NE portions of Honduras
and Nicaragua that extend E and NE to near 80W. This active
weather is expected to shift gradually westward with the tropical
waves through Wed night. Weak 1015 mb high pressure is centered
near 26N70W and yielding generally moderate trade winds across
much of the basin. This high will strengthen modestly behind the
exiting tropical waves tonight through Fri night to gradually
bring a return of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-
central basin. A tropical wave accompanied by a very broad surface
trough will move across the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu night
and the eastern Caribbean Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal boundary off the SE United States coast and divergence
aloft sustain scattered showers N of 27N and between 65W and 77W.
Farther south, a weak surface trough off Puerto Rico is generating
a few shallow showers north of the island. Scattered showers are
also seen on satellite imagery off Hispaniola. Similar convection
is also occurring from 19N to 22N and between 57W and 61W. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive
subtropical ridge positioned north of the Azores, maintaining
tranquil weather conditions. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds
and seas of 3-5 ft are found W of 55W. Gentle to locally fresh
easterly trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted between 22W and
55W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7-11 ft are present N
of 18N and E of 22W, with the strongest winds and highest seas
occurring off NW Mauritania and SE Western Sahara. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a 1015 mb high pressure is centered
near 26N70W and extends a weak ridge through the central Bahamas
to central Cuba. A stalled frontal boundary just NW of the area
will drift SE to near the NE Florida waters tonight and linger
across the region through Thu, which will maintain active weather
N of 28N between Florida and 68W. High pressure will reestablish
across the SW N Atlantic waters Wed through Fri and lift northward
Sat.

$$
DELGADO
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