[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161808
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Aug 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1740 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W, from 21N
southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side
of the tropical wave.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 75W/76W, from 19N
southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 160 nm to the
west of the tropical wave from 16N southward.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W, from 20N southward,
moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm to the
east of the tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the west of the
tropical wave, from 18N southward.

A tropical wave is inland along 95W/96W, in the westernmost
sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, from
19N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots.
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180
nm to 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 08N23W 09N33W 07N46W.
Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and
isolated strong, is within 330 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough, and elsewhere from 10N southward between 46W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad and weak surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the area. A
1015 mb high pressure center is near 24N86W. The surface
pressure gradient is flat and weak.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the south
central Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from
27N southward. An inland frontal boundary is passing through the
southern sections of Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to
the south of the coast of the U.S.A., between the Florida Big
Bend and SE Louisiana.

Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, and sea heights that
range from 3 feet to 4 feet, are in the SW corner and in the
western Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds, and
sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are elsewhere.

A 1015 high pressure center that is near 24N86W will settle
across the E central Gulf tonight through Thu. A front will sink
S and settle north of the northern Gulf tonight and linger in
this area through Thu. This will increase winds across the
northeast and north-central Gulf with moderate westerly winds.
Moderate NE to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula
will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings
through Wed and then again Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that
are near the two tropical waves. Comparatively drier air in
subsidence is from 70W eastward.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds are from the 75W/76W tropical
wave eastward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are elsewhere. The
sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet in the western
two-thirds of the area, and from 2 feet to 4 feet elsewhere.

The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia,
and beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: isolate moderate is within 60 nm on either side
of the monsoon trough.

Two tropical waves in the western Caribbean Sea are inducing
scattered showers and thunderstorms in the SW part of the basin,
and in the Honduras offshore waters. Active weather that is
associated with these tropical waves is expected to continue
through Wed night, as they keep moving westward. High pressure
will strengthen modestly to the north of the region, behind the
tropical waves, from Tue night through Fri, gradually to bring a
return of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central
basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes from a 29N53W Atlantic Ocean upper
level cyclonic circulation center, to 24N61W, to the NW Bahamas.
A surface trough is along 26N64W 22N65W 19N69W near the coast of
the Dominican Republic, with the sea heights ranging from 4 feet
to 6 feet near the surface trough. A separate upper level
trough, that is mostly to the north of the area, is responsible
for upper level cyclonic wind flow, also, from 28N northward
from 60W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from
31N64W to 23N70W to the Windward Passage. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the line
30N53W 25N56W 21N60W, to the eastern half of the Dominican
Republic.

Strong southerly winds are from 29N northward between 68W and
71W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are within 210 nm of the
coast of Africa from 18N to the Canary Islands, with the sea
heights ranging from 6 feet to 8 feet. Moderate to fresh NE
winds are from 18N northward, elsewhere from 36W eastward.
Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the area
that is from 50W eastward, and from 24N southward between 50W
and 60W. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters tonight,
and linger across the region through Thu, which will maintain
active weather N of 28N and E of the boundary through midweek.
High pressure will reestablish in the SW N Atlantic Ocean, from
Wed through Fri, and move northward Sat.

$$
mt
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