[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161016
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Tue Aug 16 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 28W, south of
21N, moving W at 15 kt. No deep convection is directly associated
with this feature.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends has its axis near 42W,
south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is directly
associated with this wave.

An central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 75W, south
of 20N, moving W at 15 to 20 kts. The northern portion of the
wave has begun to separate from the main wave energy, and
has left a surface trough from 27N64W to western Puerto Rico.
Earlier showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola have become
isolated. Scattered strong convection is inland over Colombia
along the wave axis, and also over the Caribbean waters from 11.5N
to 14N between 75W and 78W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 81W, south of
18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate
to strong convection is observed from 12N to 16N between 78W and
85W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N17W to 09N22W to 06.5N50W. There is no ITCZ
evident between 50W and South America. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N and E of 19W to the
coast of Africa, from 04N to 07N between 23W and 26W, and from 05N
to 08N between 31.5W and 40W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining
fairly tranquil weather conditions. Thunderstorms that developed
earlier in the western Yucatan are isolated across the eastern
and southern Bay of Campeche waters. Moderate to locally fresh
E-SE winds are found in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf,
where seas are 3-4 ft. Meanwhile, light to gentle anticyclonic
winds and seas of 1-3 ft are evident elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, a 1015 high pressure is centered near
27.5N87.5W and will settle across the E central Gulf tonight
through Thu. A front will sink southward toward the Gulf coast
and settle north of the northern Gulf Tue night and linger in this
area through Thu. This will increase winds across the northeast
and north-central Gulf with moderate westerly winds. Moderate NE
to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to
fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed and then
again Fri and Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Aside for the convection in the SW Caribbean Sea discussed in the
Tropical Waves section, the remainder of the basin enjoys
tranquil weather conditions. A weak high pressure regime also
across the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds across the central and SE portions of the
basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft.
Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and seas of 1-3 ft prevail.

For the forecast, weak high pressure resides across the W Atlc to
the north of Puerto Rico along 27N, and is producing a very modest
pressure gradient across the basin. Two tropical waves across the
Caribbean, along 75W and 81W, are inducing scattered to numerous
thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean to the west of 75W this
morning. These waves are expected to gradually merge by Wed as the
continue moving westward. Expect very active weather with and
ahead of these tropical waves today across the SW Caribbean and
coastal Nicaragua, then shifting westward across Central America
and the Gulf of Honduras tonight through Wed night. High pressure
will strengthen modestly to the north of the region behind the
tropical waves Tue night through Fri to gradually bring a return
of fresh to strong trade winds across the south-central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad
subtropical ridge positioned north of the Azores. Over the western
tropical Atlantic, a weak surface trough extends from 31N72W to
central Florida with scattered showers and moderate thunderstorms
noted within 120 nm SE of the trough axis. Divergence aloft is
also sustaining scattered moderate convection N of 27N and between
66W and 73W. A couple of weak surface troughs are located north
and northeast of the Leeward Islands, generating narrow lines of
moderate convection. Moderate to locally fresh E-NE winds are
prevalent between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in these
waters are 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds were depicted in
overnight scatterometer satellite data N of 18N and E of 25W,
with the strongest winds off NW Mauritania, Western Sahara and the
waters surrounding the Canary Islands. Seas in this portion of
the Atlantic are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weakening frontal trough extending
from 31N73W to central Florida will drift ESE and dissipate today.
Another frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Tue
night and linger across the region through Thu, which will
maintain active weather N of 28N and E of the boundary through
midweek. A broad surface trough extending from 27N65W to Puerto
Rico is interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Active thunderstorms
occurring E of this trough will persist through tonight as the
trough drifts westward and weakens. High pressure will reestablish
along 27-28N Wed through Fri and lift northward Sat. This will
bring a return of moderate to locally fresh trade winds S of 25N.

$$
Stripling
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