[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has been added to the 0600 UTC surface map,
along 23W, from 06N to 21N, moving W around 10 kt. A 1011 mb
surface low remains just N of the Cabo Verde islands, near
18N23.5W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 08.5N
between 22W and 25W. This wave is evident in precipitable water
animations in global model diagnostics. 2300 UTC ASCAT wind data
showed a broad surface trough in this vicinity.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated to along 35W,
from 11N-24N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is near the monsoon trough from 06.5N-08.5N between
30W and 35W. Global model diagnostics and satellite derived wind
vectors show the wave well W of its previous position.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis oriented NNE-SSW
from 24N63.5W to Venezuela near 06.5N69W. The tropical wave is
moving W at around 15 kt. A broad surface trough is reflected at
the surface and extends from the northern portion of the wave NE
to near 28N61W. Only isolated convection is seen near the wave
axis. However, numerous thunderstorms continue to the E of the
surface trough, from 20.5N to 23N between 56W AND 60.5W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 75W from 17N
southward to inland Colombia near 06N, moving W at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted W of the
wave, from 12.5N extending south and inland over Colombia and the
adjacent coastal waters to 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to a 1011 mb low near 18N23.5W to 08N33W to 07.5N42W. The
ITCZ extends from 07.5N42W to 08.5N52W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N between 17W
and the coast of Africa. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the monsoon trough
and ITCZ between 37W and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low continues moving westward and farther inland,
centered along the Texas/Mexico border near 28N100W. Scattered
moderate convection is still occurring within 45 nm of the coast
of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is within 180 nm E of the low over southern
Texas and NE Mexico. A 1015 mb high pressure is analyzed near
27.5N87W, spreading weak ridging across the Gulf. Isolated
moderated convection dots the waters off the west coast of
Florida from Tampa Bay to Florida Bay.

Moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail over the far western
Gulf, west of 95W, where seas are 3-5 ft. NOAA buoy 42020 near
27.0N 96.7W recently reported that seas to 5 ft. Moderate E winds
are west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle winds are occurring
elsewhere, with light winds near the high pressure center. Seas
are 1-2 ft E of 90W and 2-3 ft elsewhere W of 90W.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms and fresh winds near
the Texas and northern Mexico coasts are expected to diminish
later this morning as the aforementioned low pressure moves
farther inland. Otherwise, the high pressure centered over the NE
Gulf will settle across the E central Gulf Tue night through Fri.
A weak cold front sinking across the Florida Big Bend is expected
to stall along 28.5N through this evening. Moderate NE to E winds
north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh
during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Convection has ended over Hispaniola and Cuba, leaving fair skies
across the majority of the W half of the basin. The east Pacific
monsoon trough is inducing scattered tstorms over the SW
Caribbean, south of 11.5N and west of 76W. Overnight ASCAT
satellite wind data showed fresh NE to E trade winds over the
south-central Caribbean with moderate trades elsewhere, except for
gentle north of 17N between 71W-83W. Seas are 4-6 ft over the
central, south-central and southwest Caribbean. Seas are 2-3 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the weak Atlantic ridge extending from the
central Atlantic W-SW to the southeast Bahamas is currently being
interrupted by a broad trough associated with the tropical wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean. The trough and tropical wave
will reach 70W this morning, move across the central Caribbean Mon
night through Tue afternoon, then across the western basin Tue
night through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen modestly to
the north of the region behind the tropical wave Tue night
through Fri to produce fresh to locally strong trades across the
south- central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends from 1011 low pres near 31N75W to the
coast of Florida near 29.5N81W. An upper-level trough axis
extends from 31N74W to central Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from from the NW Bahamas northeastward to
along 31N between 65W-73W. Moderate winds and 4-5 ft seas are
likely occurring along and NW of the stationary front. Seas are
2-4 ft elsewhere west of 65W. A surface ridge extends from 1020
mb high pressure near 27N48W to 28N64W to Nassau, Bahamas to the
southern tip of Florida. Gentle winds are near the surface ridge
axis, including over the Bahamas. Overnight ASCAT satellite data
pass showed generally moderate SW to W winds north of 28N between
66W-78W. Moderate trade winds are off the N coast of Hispaniola.

A surface trough extends NE as a northern extension of the
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean from 21N63.5W to 28N61W.
Abundant atmospheric moisture is evident in this area as noted on
Total Precipitable Water imagery. An upper-level trough axis
extends from 31N60W to 23N65W. Upper-level diffluence to the east
of the upper-trough axis is enhancing convection to the east of
the surface trough. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is from 20.5N-26N between 54W-60.5W. Please see the NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information on that
area of convection. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data showed fresh
SE winds within 120 nm E of the surface trough axis from 22.5N-
25N. Farther east, ASCAT data showed fresh NE trades from the
Canary Islands extending southwestward to near 17N45W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. East of 65W, seas range from 4-6
ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, the modest frontal boundary extending
across the NW waters to northern Florida will drift E-SE and
weaken through tonight. Active weather will continue ahead of this
front from the northwest Bahamas northeastward today. A second
frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Wed through
Thu with similar weather. A broad surface trough associated with a
robust tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean extends NE to near
28N61W is interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Strong thunderstorms
occurring E of this trough will persist through Tue as the trough
drifts westward. High pressure will reestablish along 27-28N Thu
through Fri.

$$
Stripling
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