[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150513
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 27W from
05N-22N, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted
from 07.5N-09N between 21.5W-26W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis oriented NNE-SSW
from 21N63.5W to St. Croix to Caracas, Venezuela to 07N68W. The
tropical wave is moving W at around 15 kt. This tropical wave
shows up as a trough at the surface. Scattered moderate convection
is noted south of 12.5N between 65W-67W, and from 18N-19N between
59.5W-62.5W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 72W from 17N
southward to inland Colombia near 06N, moving W at around 10 kt.
No precipitation is noted over water with this wave. However,
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted inland over
western Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 88W from 20N
southward to El Salvador and into the east Pacific, moving W at
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
inland over southern Honduras and El Salvador, enhanced by upper-
level divergence over the area. Scattered showers are also seen
over southwestern portions of the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to a 1011 mb low near 17N25W to 09N30W to 08N42W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N42W to 08N51W. Scattered showers are from 06N-
08N between 30W-40W. Isolated showers are from 06N-08N between
40W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1008 mb low has been moving westward and farther inland,
centered along the Texas/Mexico border near Laredo, Texas as of
15/0300 UTC. Scattered moderate convection is still occurring
offshore within 90 nm of the coast of southern Texas, west of 96W
between 25N-28.5N. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is over southern Texas and NE Mexico. A 1015 mb high
pressure is analyzed near 28N89W, spreading weak ridging across
the Gulf. Isolated showers are occurring off the west coast of
Florida from Tampa Bay to Florida Bay.

Moderate to locally fresh SE winds prevail over the far western
Gulf, west of 95W, where seas are likely 3-4 ft. NOAA buoy 42020
near 27.0N 96.7W recently reported that seas had subsided to 4 ft,
whereas seas were 6 ft earlier, around noon Saturday local time.
Moderate NE to E winds are west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Gentle
winds are occurring elsewhere, with light winds near the high
pressure center. Seas are 1-2 ft E of 90W and 2-3 ft W of 90W.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms and fresh winds near
the Texas and northern Mexico coasts are expected to diminish
later this morning as the aforementioned low pressure moves
farther inland. Otherwise, moderate NE to E winds north and west
of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late
afternoons and evenings through Wed. Meanwhile, a weak front
sinking across the Florida Big Bend tonight is expected to stall
along 28.5N before dissipating this evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Isolated showers and tstorms are noted over Hispaniola and Cuba.
The east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered showers and
isolated tstorms over the SW Caribbean, south of 12.5N and west of
73W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows fresh NE to E trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean with moderate trades
elsewhere, except for gentle north of 17N between 71W-83W. Seas
are 4-6 ft over the central, south-central and southwest
Caribbean. Seas are 2-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends from the central
Atlantic W-SW to the southeast Bahamas and currently supports
moderate trade winds across the south central Caribbean. A broad
trough associated with a tropical wave is moving westward across
the eastern Caribbean, and will reach 70W later this morning, move
across the central Caribbean tonight through Tue afternoon, then
across the western basin Tue night through Wed night. High
pressure will strengthen modestly across the region behind the
tropical wave Tue night through Fri to produce fresh to locally
strong trades across the south-central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends from 31N76W to the coast of Florida
near 29N81W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N74W to
central Cuba. A surface trough extends from 31N68W to 29N69W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 27N-31N between 65W-
74W. Isolated showers are from 27N-31N between 74W-79W. Moderate
winds and 4-5 ft seas are likely occurring near the stationary
front. Seas are 2-4 ft elsewhere west of 65W. A surface ridge
extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 31N47W to 28N64W to
Nassau, Bahamas to the southern tip of Florida. Gentle winds are
near the surface ridge axis, including over the Bahamas. A recent
ASCAT satellite data pass shows generally moderate SW to W winds
north of 28N between 66W-78W. Moderate trade winds are off the N
coast of Hispaniola.

A surface trough extends NNE as a northern extension of the
tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean from 21N63.5W to 28N59W.
Abundant atmospheric moisture is evident in this area as noted on
Total Precipitable Water imagery. An upper-level trough axis
extends from 31N60W to 23N65W. Upper-level diffluence to the east
of the upper-trough axis is enhancing convection to the east of
the surface trough. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is from 21N-26N between 54W-60.5W. Please see the NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more information on that
area of convection. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data shows fresh
SE winds within 120 nm E of the surface trough axis from 22.5N-
25N. Farther east, ASCAT data shows fresh NE trades from the
Canary Islands extending southwestward to near 17N45W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere. East of 65W, seas range from 3-6
ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a modest frontal boundary that extends
from 31N76W to northern Florida will drift E-SE and weaken today.
Periods of active weather will continue well east of this front
through today. A second frontal boundary will approach the NE
Florida waters Wed through Thu with similar weather. A broad
surface trough associated with a robust tropical wave over the
eastern Caribbean extends from 21N63.5W to 28N59W and is
interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Strong thunderstorms
occurring E of this trough will persist through Tue as the trough
shifts westward. This area of convection from 21N-26N between
54W-60.5W has a low chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within
the next 48 hr as it moves slowly to the NNW. High pressure will
reestablish along 27-28N Thu through Fri.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net