[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142340
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 22N
southward, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave at this
time.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis from 22N61W to
11N68W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. A surface trough is north of
the tropical wave from 28N57W to 22N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 20N to 27N between 54W-60W. Scattered
showers are noted in the wake of the wave across the eastern
Caribbean.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 71W from 17N
southward to Venezuela near 12N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted across the southern
portion of the wave affecting northern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 87W from 20N
southward to central Honduras, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
showers are noted in the vicinity of the northern half of the
wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland across the
southern half of the wave affecting Nicaragua and Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N17W to a 1010 mb low near 18N22W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends
from 07N40W to 09N59W. Scattered showers are from 06N-08N between
29W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface low inland near 28N98W continues to enhance convection
across the NW portion of the basin, mainly N of 25N and W of 96W.
Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds are noted off the Texas
coast with seas up to 6 ft off the Corpus Christi coast. Although
no additional development of this system is expected as it moves
over land, heavy rains are likely to continue over portions of
southern Texas through Monday, which could cause localized areas
of flash flooding. For more information about the potential for
heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.

Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is moving southward
across the eastern Gulf waters mainly E of 85W. This activity is
preceding a cold front that currently extends across northern
Florida along 29N and E of 85W. Gentle to moderate winds are
noted across the central and eastern Gulf with seas 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds north and west of the
Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons
and evenings through Wed. Meanwhile, the cold front is expected
to stall along northern Florida through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The NW Caribbean with light winds and seas 1-2 ft. Scattered
moderate convection is noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon
trough S of 12N between 70W and 81W. Light and variable winds
and seas of 2 ft or less prevail across the NW Caribbean. Light
to gentle easterly winds are noted across the remainder of the
basin with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will gradually strengthen
starting Tue, causing fresh to locally strong trades across the
south-central Caribbean and fresh trades for the north-central
portion. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave is
moving westward across the Lesser Antilles, expect sporadic
showers and tstms to persist through tonight. This system will
then impact the eastern basin from Mon through Tue morning, the
central basin Tue afternoon through Wed, and finally the western
basin Wed evening through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A weak cold front is dropping southward across the western
Atlantic, analyzed from 31N77W to 29N81W. A pre-frontal trough
is noted from 30N76W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted across the SW N Atlantic from 27N to 31N between 68W and
80W. Gentle northerly winds are noted behind the front with
moderate southerly winds ahead of the front and near the trough.
Seas are 2-4 ft in this area. Light to gentle winds are noted
from 23N northward to the surface high, with gentle to moderate
easterly winds across the rest of the basin. Seas range 4-6 ft.

A subtropical surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high near
25N35W across the central Atlantic to Florida. A trough is noted
in the central Atlantic from 31N42W to 24N37W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the frontal boundary over the western
Atlantic will drift E-SE and weaken through Mon. Periods of
active weather will continue ahead of this front from the
northwest Bahamas northeastward through that time. A second
frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Wed and Thu
with similar weather. A broad surface trough associated with a
robust tropical wave is generating strong thunderstorms with
locally moderate to fresh winds well northeast of Puerto Rico.
This trend will persist through Tue while gradually shifting
westward.

$$
ERA
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