[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Aug 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 26W from 21N
southward, just west of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 10
kt. Scattered showers are noted from 06N to 18N between 22W and
27W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 63W/64W
from 22N southward to northern Venezuela, moving W at 15 to 20
kt. A surface trough is north of the tropical wave from 22N61W
to 28N56W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the eastern
Caribbean from 12N to 16N between 61W and 66W. Numerous moderate
to isolated strong convection is noted across the northern
portion of the wave and the surface trough from 17N to 28N
between 52W and 62W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 70W from 17N
southward to Venezuela near 12N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 68W and
71W.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 86W from 20N
southward to central Honduras, moving W at 15 kt. There is no
significant convection noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W to a 1010 mb low near 17N21W to 11N29W to 08N36W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 19W and 53W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface low inland near Corpus Christi has a trough along it
across the Texas coast. This system is producing numerous
moderate to strong convection across the western Gulf from 22N
to 29N and W of 94W. Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds are
noted off the Texas coast with seas up to 6 ft off the Corpus
Christi coast. Surface and radar observations indicate that the
circulation has become a little better defined, however the
center is expected to move inland over southern Texas and
further significant development is not anticipated.  Regardless
of development, heavy rains are forecast across southern Texas
through Monday, which could cause localized areas of flash
flooding. For more information about the potential for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. This
system has a low chance of formation within the next 48 hours and
5 days.

Elsewhere, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
moving southward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from 27N to
30N between 83W and 89W. These storms have frequent lightning
and potentially gusty winds. Gentle to moderate winds are noted
across the central and eastern Gulf with seas 2-3 ft.

For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds west of the Yucatan
Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and
evenings through Wed. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front is
expected to stall along the northern Gulf coasts from southeast
Louisiana to northern Florida through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Isolated thunderstorms are noted across the NW Caribbean with
light winds and seas 1-2 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
noted in the SW Caribbean near the monsoon trough S of 12N
between 75W and 79W. Light to gentle easterly winds are noted
across the basin with seas 3-5 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the central
Atlantic SW to the SE Bahamas will gradually weaken through Tue.
A broad trough associated with a tropical wave along 61-62W will
move westward across the Lesser Antilles today, reach 70W Sun
night, move across the central Caribbean Mon through Tue, and
across the western Caribbean Wed through Thu. This will yield
mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the basin
thought late Mon. High pressure will begin to build in across the
region behind the tropical wave Tue through Wed and bring a return
to fresh to strong winds across the south central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front is dropping southward across the NE Florida
coast, stretching from 31N78W to near Jacksonville, FL near
30N81W. A pre-frontal trough is noted from 30N77W to near
Melbourne, FL near 28N81W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted across the SW N Atlantic from 22N to 31N
between 70W and 80W. Gentle northerly winds are noted behind the
front with moderate southerly winds ahead of the front and near
the trough. Seas are 2-4 ft in this area. Light to gentle winds
are noted from 23N northward to the surface high, with gentle to
moderate easterly winds across the rest of the basin. Seas range
4-6 ft.

A subtropical surface ridge extends from a 1023 mb high near
25N35W across the central Atlantic to Florida. A trough is noted
in the central Atlantic from 22N36W to 30N40W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 27N to 31N between 39W and
50W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak frontal boundary extends
from near the Florida-Georgia border E-NE across the W Atlantic
and will drift E-SE and weaken through Mon. Periods of active
weather will continue well ahead of the front, N of 28N and W of
68W through tonight. A second frontal boundary will approach the
NE Florida waters Wed and Thu to produce similar weather. High
pressure over the central Atlantic extends to the central Bahamas
and will weaken through Tue as a broad surface trough associated
with a tropical wave moves across the southeast waters and into
the SE Bahamas. High pressure will build into the Bahamas Wed
through Thu to freshen trade winds S of 24N.

$$

AReinhart
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