[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sun Aug 14 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 24W from 22N
southward through the Cabo Verde Islands to 04N, moving W near 10
kt. A 1010 mb low pressure lingers east of the wave axis near
17N20.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to
12N between 18W and 28W. Widely scattered weak to moderate
convection is also noted within 240 nm across the W semicircle of
the low pressure center.

A tropical wave has an axis that extends from 23N59.5W across the
Lesser Antilles to to 06N63.5W in Venezuela, moving W at 15 kt. A
broad surface trough accompanies this tropical wave and extends
farther NE to 27N55W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
noted within 210 nm west of the wave axis from 06N to 11N. Widely
scattered moderate convection is elsewhere over water within 210
nm W and 420 nm E of the wave axis S of 16N. The northern portion
of the wave and surface trough axis is interacting with a middle
level trough to produce numerous moderate to strong convection
from 22.5N to 27N between 50W and 58W.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 69W from 17N
southward to Venezuela near 07N, moving W near 15 kt. Isolated
moderate convection is along the wave axis south of 15N extending
inland across Venezuela to 09N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 84W from 20N
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection trails the wave axis, from coastal portions of NE
Nicaragua to the NW coast of Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 1010 mb low pressure near 17N20.5W to 10N42W. The ITCZ
is noted from 06N44W to 10N55W. Aside from the convection related
to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 44W and 56W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered thunderstorm activity has increased across the Texas
coastal waters in recent hours, in association with a 1012 mb
surface low near 27.5N97W and trough extending NE into eastern
Texas. 0300 UTC ASCAT satellite data showed moderate winds
surrounding the low center, except for a small area of 20 kt winds
of easterly winds along the central Texas coast. Area buoys show
seas of 3 to 4 ft across this area, possibly as high as 5 ft
across the central Texas coastal waters. The trough will be
moving fully inland into Texas later this morning. However, active
weather may continue over the northwestern and west-central Gulf
through Mon morning. Heavy rains are forecast across southern
Texas through Monday. For more information about the potential for
heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.

Elsewhere, isolated tstorms are occurring over the far SW Gulf,
south of 22N and west of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is
also noted offshore of the Florida Big Bend, north of 28N and east
of 87W. High pressure ridging extends across the remainder of
the Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1016 mb high pressure near
28N86W. Light to gentle winds are near the high pressure center.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except for moderate to
fresh west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 1-2 ft over the NE
Gulf and 2-3 ft elsewhere. The high pressure extending across N
Florida and into the NE Gulf will sink slowly southward through
Wed. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front is expected to stall along
the northern Gulf coasts from southeast Louisiana to northern
Florida through Mon. Moderate NE to E winds west of the Yucatan
Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and
evenings through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

An upper-level trough axis extending from the SE Bahamas across
eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras is supporting isolated
showers and tstorms over the NW Caribbean, while earlier
convection across Haiti and Cuba has ended. The east Pacific
monsoon trough, situated over the SW Caribbean along 11N, is
inducing scattered moderate isolated strong convection along it
between 75W-77W, just off the coast of Colombia. Moderate trades
prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, locally fresh in
the south-central Caribbean offshore of NE Colombia. Gentle to
moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas are estimated at 4-6 ft over
the south-central Caribbean and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure extending from the central
Atlantic SW to the central Bahamas and will gradually weaken
through Tue. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave along
61-62W will move westward across the eastern Caribbean today,
reach 70W Sun night, move across the central Caribbean Mon through
Tue, and across the western Caribbean Wed through Thu. This will
yield mainly moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the
basin thought late Mon. High pressure will begin to build in
across the region behind the tropical wave Tue through Wed and
bring a return to fresh to strong winds across the south central
Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A stationary front extends from 31N77W to near Jacksonville, FL.
A surface trough to the southeast of the front extends from
31N78W to Cape Canaveral, FL. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 28N-31N between 73W-77W. Another surface trough
extends from 31N70W to 27N76W. An upper- level trough axis
extends from 31N77W to the NW Bahamas. Another upper- level
trough axis extends from Bermuda to 24N70W to eastern Cuba. The
upper- level troughs are enhancing the aforementioned convection.
Farther east, a surface trough from 23N59W to 27N54W is an
extension of a tropical wave mentioned above.

A subtropical surface ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure
near 32N45W to 29N67W to 24N76W to South Florida. Gentle or
weaker wind speeds prevail near the ridge axis. Moderate winds are
occurring north of 28N and west of 69W where the surface troughs
are producing convection. West of 65W, seas are about 3 ft. Fresh
NE trades are noted from 17N-27N between 17W-35W. Seas are 5-7 ft
in this area. Moderate or weaker winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail
elsewhere east of 65W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak frontal boundary extending
from near the Florida-Georgia border E-NE across the W Atlantic
and will drift E-SE and weaken through Mon. Periods of active
weather will continue well ahead of the front, N of 28N and W of
68W through Sun night. A second frontal boundary will approach the
NE Florida waters Wed and Thu to produce similar weather. High
pressure over the central Atlantic extending to the central
Bahamas will weaken through Tue as a broad surface trough
associated with a tropical wave moves across the southeast waters
and into the SE Bahamas. High pressure will build into the Bahamas
Wed through Thu to freshen trade winds S of 24N.

$$

Stripling
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