[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151551
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Aug 15 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 06N to
21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Earlier convection has diminished to
scattered weak showers along the northern half and southern tip of
the wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 37W, from 11N to
24N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and
weak.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends through the Mona
Passage from 06N70W to 21N66W, moving W at 10-15 kts. Isolated
moderate convection is observed behind the wave from 11N to 16N,
between 62W and 68W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 77W from 06N to
17N, moving W at 20-25 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong
convection is observed from 10N to 13N, between 75W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
20N16W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 06N56W.
Convection along these boundaries is isolated and weak.

A portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the
SW Caribbean, just north of Panama. This feature is interacting
with a tropical wave to produce numerous moderate with isolated
strong convection from 10N to 13N, between 75W and 82W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

As low pressure over northern Mexico continues to drift farther
inland, high pressure in the NE Gulf is becoming the dominate
feature. A surface trough across central Florida is supporting
scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of Tampa Bay. Another
area of moderate convection extends roughly 90 nm from the mouth
of the Mississippi River. Winds are moderate from the SE in the
western Gulf and gentle elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft in the western
Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a 1015 mb high pressure is centered near 27N87W
in the eastern Gulf and will settle across the E central Gulf Tue
night through Fri. A front will settle north of the northern Gulf
Tue night into Wed morning. This will increase winds across the
northeast and north-central Gulf with moderate southerly winds
expected Tue night through Thu. Moderate NE to E winds north and
west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late
afternoons and evenings through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the monsoon trough in
the SW Caribbean and tropical waves moving across the basin.

Outside of thunderstorms, easterly trade winds are gentle to
moderate across the basin. Seas are 2-4 ft in the eastern
Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW
Caribbean.

For the forecast, a weak Atlantic ridge extends from the central
Atlantic to the southeast Bahamas and is supporting moderate
trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. A broad trough
associated with a tropical wave is moving westward across the
eastern Caribbean and will reach 70W later this morning. The
tropical wave is expected to continue moving westward across the
central Caribbean tonight and across the western basin Tue night
through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen modestly to the
north of the region behind the tropical wave Tue night through
Fri. This will help produce fresh to locally strong trades across
the south- central basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

In the western Atlantic, a dissipating stationary front extends
from a 1010 mb low pressure centered near 32N74W. A line of
thunderstorms extends ahead of this feature from the northern
Bahamas to 31N70W. Winds are gentle to moderate from the SW with
3-5 ft seas. A 1020 mb high centered near 29N47W dominates the
pattern in the central Atlantic. Gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas
increase to moderate northeasterlies and 4-6 ft seas south of
20-25N. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE winds
dominate with strong gap winds between the Canary Islands. Seas
are generally 5-7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, a weak frontal boundary extending off
the NE Florida coast will linger in this area and weaken by
tonight. Active weather will continue ahead of this front from the
northwest Bahamas northeastward today. A second frontal boundary
will approach the NE Florida waters Wed into Thu with similar
weather. A broad surface trough associated with a robust tropical
wave over the eastern Caribbean extending from 21N66W to 11N69W is
interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Strong thunderstorms
occurring E of this trough will persist through Tue as the trough
drifts westward. High pressure will reestablish along 27-28N Thu
through Fri.

$$
Flynn
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