[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062202
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Aug 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from
the Cabo Verde Islands southward, moving W at around 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 15N between 23W and
29W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 22N
southward moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection has developed from 10N to 13N between 37W and 42W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W, extending
just E of the Lesser Antilles, moving west at 10 to 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection has developed across the Windward
and southern Leeward Islands.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 76W from just S
of eastern Cuba into Colombia, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Convection
previously associated with this tropical wave has diminished.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 18N16W
southwestward to 12N26W then westward to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends
from 10N40W to 10N56W. Convection in the vicinity of these
features is associated with the tropical waves described above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough from 29N88W southward to the Yucatan
Peninsula is initiating scattered moderate convection within 90 nm
either side of its axis. Otherwise high pressure centered NE of
the area continues to dominate the basin. Gentle to moderate winds
encompass most of the basin, but locally fresh winds are occurring
near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula as well as in the Florida
Straits. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 6 ft in the Floria
Straits.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf
will continue through the next few days maintaining generally
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects,
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse during
the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula
through Mon night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are mainly over the eastern Gulf N of 23N and E of 91W. Winds and
seas could be higher near thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough in the SW
Caribbean, which passes through 1008 mb Colombian/Panamanian Low
near 10N78W, is producing scattered moderate convection from the
coast of Panama north to 12N west of 78W. Scattered moderate
convection has also developed in and near the Gulf of Honduras and
extends northward offshore the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to
fresh trades continue over the E, Central, and SW Caribbean, with
seas of 5-7 ft, locally 8 ft with strong trades in the south-
central Caribbean. In the NW Caribbean, trades are gentle to
moderate with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will
freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun with the passage of
a tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
continue over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week.
Mainly fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Mon night, and then again Wed night and Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the
subtropical Atlantic. An upper-level low pressure centered near
31N74W and associated deep layer trough are producing scattered
moderate convection N of 28N between 68W and 76W, otherwise,
fairly tranquil conditions dominate. Mainly moderate trades
prevail with seas of 3 to 6 ft. Locally fresh winds are occurring
N of Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located near Bermuda
will dominate the forecast region during the next several days.
Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds S of 25N
through Tue night. Winds S of 25N will be mainly moderate Wed and
Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during
the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. An
upper-level low will track from E to W across the northern waters
toward the general area of NE Florida through Sun night generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters.

$$
Konarik
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