[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070406
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Aug 7 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 16N,
between the coast of Africa and 20W. This convection precedes a
new tropical wave that will enter the Atlantic later today.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 06N to
21N, moving W at 15 kt. Convection has diminished substantially
overnight.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 38W, from 06N to
22N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring
near this wave.

A tropical wave has just crossed into the Caribbean, extending
along 62W from 05N to 21N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed behind the wave from 12N to 16N, between
55W and 61W. This convection will bring periods of heavy rainfall
and gusty winds to the central Lesser Antilles overnight and
through the morning.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 78W, from 05N to 19N,
moving W at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed in the
SW Caribbean and near the lee of Cuba, including the Cayman
Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 11N40W. The ITCZ continues from 11N40W to 08N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the monsoon
trough from 09N to 13N, between 28W and 33W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough stretching across the central Gulf is supporting
isolated showers and thunderstorms from the Yucatan Peninsula to
NE basin. Otherwise high pressure near Bermuda continues to
dominate the basin with mainly moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas
throughout the majority of the Gulf, with the exception of fresh
easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas in the Florida Straits.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf
will continue through the next few days maintaining generally
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects,
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse during
the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula
through Mon night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are over most of the central Gulf and far eastern Gulf waters.
Winds and seas may higher in an near this activity.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting a fresh to strong easterly
breeze across the majority of the Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. A
recent scatterometer pass confirmed a strong E breeze in the
south-central basin. Conditions are more favorable in the NW
Caribbean with moderate easterly winds and 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will
freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun with the passage of
a tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
continue over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week.
Mainly fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Mon night, and then again Wed night and Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the
subtropical Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, gentle to moderate
easterlies increase to a fresh breeze south of about 22N. Strong
NE winds are possible near the entrance to the Windward Passage.
In the eastern Atlantic, a recent scatterometer pass observed a
fresh to strong breeze near the coast of Western Sahara and the
Canary Islands with moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are generally
3-6 ft across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located near Bermuda
will dominate the forecast region during the next several days.
Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds S of 25N
through Tue night. Winds S of 25N will be mainly moderate Wed and
Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during
the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. An
upper-level low will track from E to W across the northern waters
toward the general area of NE Florida through Sun night generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters.

$$
Flynn
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