[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Aug 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from
21N southward moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is from 10N to 13N between 23W and 26W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 22N
southward moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection
is noted at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W from 21N
southward moving westward at about 15 kt. No significant
convection is noted at this time. The 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding
from Barbados indicates the tropical wave is approaching the
island.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 74W from 19N near
the Windward Passage southward to central Colombia. It is moving
westward at 20 kt. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted between
Jamaica and SE Cuba. The 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding
from Kingston, Jamaica indicates the tropical wave is approaching
the island.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal boarder of Senegal
and Mauritania near 16N16W southwestward to 12N23W then westward
to 10N40W. The ITCZ extends from 10N40W to 10N55W. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and tstorms noted in the E Gulf and Florida
Straits. Surface ridging, driven by the subtropical Atlantic high,
continues to dominated the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to
SE winds prevail with 2-4 ft seas, locally 5 ft in the Florida
Straits.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf
will continue through the next few days maintaining generally
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects,
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse during
the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula
through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are mainly
over the eastern Gulf N of 23N and E of 90W. Winds and seas could
be higher near thunderstorms.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough in the SW
Caribbean, which passes through 1008 mb Colombian/Panamanian Low
near 10N81W, is producing scattered moderate convection from the
coast of Panama north to 12N west of 78W. Moderate to fresh trades
continue over the E, Central, and SW Caribbean, with seas of 5-7
ft, locally 8 ft with strong trades in the south-central
Caribbean. In the NW Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with
3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will
freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun with the passage of
a tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
continue over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week.
Mainly fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night
through Mon night, and then again Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the
subtropical Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, an upper-level low
producing a few showers and occasionally a surface trough is located
near 31N74W is moving to the west. Gentle to moderate trades
prevail over the discussion waters, with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located N of the area
will change little through the weekend, then shift S early next
week. Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds
S of 25N through Tue night. Winds S of 25N will be mainly moderate
Wed and Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse
north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage
during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night.
An upper-level low will track from E to W across the northern
waters toward the general area of NE Florida through Sun night
generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters.

$$
Mahoney
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