[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Aug 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from
06N to 21N moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 120 nm east of the wave from 11N to
14N. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm west
of the wave from 13N to 16N.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 06N
to 22N moving westward at 15-20 kt. Convection is limited with
this wave as only scattered moderate convection is seen within
120 nm east of the wave from 07N to 10N. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are within 180 nm east of the wave from 11N to 14N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W from 05N
to 21N moving westward at about 15 kt. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are on either side of this wave from 13N to 16N
between 52W-60W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 72W from
Hispaniola southward into Venezuela. It is moving westward near
20 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the southern
coast of Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coastal boarder of
Senegal and Mauritania near 16N16W southwestward to 12N23W and
to 11N32W to 11N40W. The ITCZ extends from 11N40W to 10N47W
and to 10N53W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical
waves, scattered moderate convection within 120 nm south of
the monsoon trough between 26W-29W, also between 36W-39W and
within 30 nm of the monsoon trough between 23W-27W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low over the south-central Gulf near 24N88W, with
associated inverted trough extending northward to near Mobile,
Alabama is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms, mainly
from 24N to 29N between 84W-88W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are concentrated over the central Gulf from 23N to
25N between 88W-93W. Weak surface high pressure ridging across
the northern Gulf continues to dominate the synoptic pattern with
mainly moderate east-southwest winds and relatively low seas of
2-4 ft across the basin. Fresh easterly winds, as seen in overnight
ASCAT data, are over the Straits of Florida, where seas likely
reach a maximum of 6 ft.

For the forecast, the weak surface high pressure ridging over the
northern Gulf will continue through the next few days maintaining
generally gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local
effects, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will
briefly pulse during the evening and overnight hours west of the
Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the NW Gulf and over the western part of the
central Gulf are a result of a mid to upper-level trough. This
activity will gradually shift westward through this evening.
Similar activity also moving westward is over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the southwestern Caribbean is supporting fresh easterly
winds across the central and eastern Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Seas are generally 6-8 ft. A small area of fresh
to strong northeast to east inds along the coast of Colombia is
building seas to around 9 ft. In the northeastern Caribbean,
winds are gentle to moderate with relatively low seas of 2-4 ft.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the majority of
western half of the basin. Similar activity is just offshore Cuba
and Haiti. Patches of moisture in the form of low-level clouds
along with isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving westward
in the trade wind flow over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean to along the coast of Colombia will continue
through Tue night. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean
through Sun with the passage of a tropical wave. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will continue over the northwestern
Caribbean into early next week. Mainly fresh winds are expected
in the Gulf of Honduras tonight, Sun night and Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the
subtropical Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, an upper-level low
located near 31N72W is moving to the west. A mid to upper-level
trough is noted from the low south-southwest to the southeastern
Bahamas. Pockets of scattered showers and thunderstorms are
present from about 26N to 31N and between 60W-75W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of 65W, including the
areas of the Bahama Islands and Straits of Florida. This
activity is moving in a westward direction, with the activity
west of the Bahamas tracking to the west-northwest. Some of this
activity is capable of producing strong gusts of wind.

Per overnight ASCAT data passes, moderate east-southeast winds
and seas of 3-5 ft dominate the waters north of 25N. Farther
south, winds increase to fresh easterlies with 5-7 ft seas,
including the Old Bahama Channel, Windward Passage and Florida
Straits. Conditions are similar in the central Atlantic, with
slightly weaker winds. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh
northeast winds are present there along with resultant seas of
5-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure will
change little through the weekend, then shift S early next week.
Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate east to
southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds S of 25N
through Tue night. Winds S of 25N will be mainly moderate Wed and
Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during
the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. The
aforementioned upper-level low and mid to upper-level trough will
track from E to W across the northern waters toward the general
area of NE Florida through Sun night generating scattered showers
and thunderstorms over those waters.

$$
Aguirre
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net