[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060404
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Aug 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 20W from 06N to
21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 11N to 14N, between 18W and 21W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W from 06N to
22N, moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is isolated and
weak.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 52W from 05N to
21N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is observed near
the wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 69W from Hispaniola
southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are observed
along the southern coast of Hispaniola.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal boarder of Senegal and
Mauritania near 16N16W across the majority of the tropical Atlantic
to 09N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of the
feature from 07N to 11N, between 24W and 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level low over the south-central Gulf is causing
scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the northern half
of the basin, though they have been losing intensity over the last
six hours. Weak surface ridging across the northern Gulf
continues to dominate the synoptic pattern with mainly moderate
E-SE wind and 2-4 ft seas across the basin. Fresh easterly winds
are observed in the Florida Straits, where seas likely reach 6
ft.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf
will continue through the next few days maintaining generally
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects,
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse during
the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula
through Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW
Gulf and over the western part of the central Gulf are a result
of a surface trough that extends from 28N93W to 24N94W and a mid
to upper-level trough in its vicinity. This activity will
gradually shift westward through Sat. Similar activity also moving
westward is over the eastern Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure
over the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh easterly winds across
the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage.
Seas are generally 6-8 ft. A small area of strong to near gale
force NE winds along the coast of Colombia is building seas to 10
ft. In the NW Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate with 2-4 ft
seas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are observed across the
western half of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south-
central Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will
freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate
winds and slight seas will persist over the northwestern
Caribbean into early next week. Mainly fresh winds are expected in
the Gulf of Honduras at night through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the
subtropical Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, moderate E-SE
winds and 3-5 ft seas dominate the waters north of 25N. Farther
south, winds increase to fresh easterlies with 5-7 ft seas,
including the Old Bahama Channel, Windward Passage and Florida
Straits. Conditions are similar in the central Atlantic, with
slightly weaker winds. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh
NE winds dominate with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located N of the area
will change little through the weekend, then shift S early next
week. Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate
east to southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds
S of 25N through Tue night, then mainly moderate east winds Wed
and Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north
of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage
during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Tue night.
An upper-level low and related surface trough will track from E to
W across the northern waters through the weekend generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

$$
Flynn
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