[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052205
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Aug 6 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave that emerged earlier today from
the coast of Africa is now along 19W, from 20N southward, moving W
at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is noted from 08N to 16N, E of 21W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has it axis along 31W from 22N
southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection has developed from 07N to 10N between 22W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W from 21N
southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted near the wave axis south of 10N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 69W from
Hispaniola southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. No
significant convection is noted with the wave at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from Senegal near 12N16W to
10N28W to 08N47W. The ITCZ extends from 08N50W to 06N57W. Aside
from convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered
moderate convection is within 150 nm south of the Monsoon Trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak surface trough has developed in the NW Gulf from 27N92W to
24N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted between this trough
and the Texas coast.  The Gulf of Mexico continues to be
influenced by high pressure ridging along the western periphery of
the subtropical Atlantic high. Mainly gentle SE winds prevail,
with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Locally fresh NE winds are occurring
within about 90 nm of the Yucatan Peninsula.

For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf will
continue through the next few days maintaining generally gentle
to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects, fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the evening
and night hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, which passes
through the SW Caribbean and 1008 mb Colombian/Panamanian low
centered near 10N80W, is producing scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection S of 19N and W of 80W. N of the monsoon trough,
at least fresh trades dominate for all but the NW basin. Locally
strong winds are occurring offshore Colombia and Venezuela. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft, except locally up to 9 ft off the coast of
Colombia. In the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and seas
of 3 to 5 ft prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will freshen
over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas will persist over the northwestern Caribbean
into early next week. Mainly fresh winds are expected in the Gulf
of Honduras at night through Sun night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N69W to 28N73W. Convection
previously associated with this trough as diminished this
afternoon. The remainder of the Atlantic continues to be
dominated by the subtropical Atlantic high centered north of the
area. Mainly moderate trades dominate most of the basin, although
fresh winds are occurring offshore Hispaniola and in the Windward
Passage. Seas are 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge north of
the area will change little through early next week. Under the
influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
will prevail N of 25N while moderate to fresh easterly winds are
expected S of 25. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse
north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage
during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Tue night.
An upper-level disturbance will track from E to W across the
northern waters through the weekend generating scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

$$
Konarik
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