[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032311
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Aug 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa along 19W from 07N to
23N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
accompanies the wave from 09N-15N between the coast of Africa
and 22W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 35W from 04N-21N,
moving west at 10-15 kt A 1012 mb low is along the wave axis near
14N35W. No significant convection is currently occurring in
association with this tropical wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 04N-20N,
moving west around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen
near the wave axis, south of 13N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 88W from 17N southward,
moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring inland along the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of northern
Mauritania near 20N16W to a 1012 mb low pressure near 14N35W.
The ITCZ continues from 11N35W to 10N51W, then resumes W of a
tropical wave from 10N54W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N-14N and W of 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1018 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf near 30N86W. An
upper-level trough axis extends from western North Carolina
southwestward to near Houston, Texas. Upper-level diffluence to
the south of this trough is enhancing scattered moderate
convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico mainly E of 90W.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas up to 4 ft
prevail across the basin. Somewhat stronger winds and higher
seas are possible in any of the stronger thunderstorms.

For the forecast, surface ridging extending across the northern
Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
across most of the Gulf into Sun. Fresh E winds will briefly
pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of the
Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low prevails across the western Caribbean. The
diffluent flow aloft combined with the eastern extension of the
EPAC's monsoon trough is enhancing scattered showers across the
southern half of the basin. Diurnal heating is enhancing
convection across the Greater Antilles generating scattered
showers and thunderstorms that could affect the adjacent waters.

Latest ASCAT pass depicted fresh trades across the south-
central Caribbean, where an altimeter pass showed seas of 7 to 8
ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the
eastern and central Caribbean, with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to
moderate E winds are occurring over the NW Caribbean, where seas
are 3-4 ft.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong trade
winds and over the central Caribbean. Winds will freshen over the
eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A broad upper-level low is centered near 23N64W. A surface trough
is near the same area, oriented from 31N63W to 26N67W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 24N-31N between 62W-70W.
Recent scatterometer data depicts a surface ridge axis extending
across the Atlantic from a 1025 mb high pressure near 33N341 to
Bermuda to the coast of Florida near 29N81W. Gentle E to SE winds
and 2-4 ft seas generally prevail N of 25N and W of 50W.
Moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas are S of 25N. Moderate to fresh
NE winds prevail across the E Atlantic, E of 35W and N of 25N,
increasing to fresh to strong near the Canary Islands and the
coast of Morocco. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are noted across the tropical Atlantic, to
the east of the Lesser Antilles, with 5-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface ridge along 30N
will lift north of the area maintaining gentle to moderate E to
SE winds and slight to moderate seas over most of the area
through the weekend. Farther south, fresh to occasionally strong
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to
the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight
hours through late Sun.

$$
ERA
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