[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa along 18W from 07N to
24N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection accompanies the wave from 09N-19N between the coast of
Africa and 20W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33/34W from 04N-21N,
moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is currently
occurring in association with this tropical wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51/52W from 04N-20N,
moving west around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen
near the wave axis, south of 13N.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86/87W from 17N
southward through central Honduras and NW Nicaragua to the east
Pacific, and moving west near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is occurring over SE Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
northern Mauritania near 20N16W to 14N25W to 1012 mb low pressure
near 14N32W to 11N35W. The ITCZ continues from 11N35W to 09N38W to
10N50W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 10N53W to 10N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N-12.5N between
53W-62W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1018 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf near 28N85W. An
upper-level trough axis extends from western North Carolina
southwestward to near Houston, Texas. Upper-level diffluence to
the south of this upper-level trough axis is enhancing scattered
moderate thunderstorms over the north-central and northeast Gulf
of Mexico, north of 26N and east of 93.5W. Moderate S winds and
wave heights up to 4 ft are currently being observed by buoys off
the coast of southern Texas. Seas are likely also 3-4 ft over the
central Bay of Campeche. Gentle wind speeds and 1-3 ft seas
prevail elsewhere. Somewhat stronger winds and higher seas are
possible in any of the stronger thunderstorms.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the
northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas across most of the Gulf into Sun. Fresh E winds will briefly
pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of the
Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough axis extends southwestward from an upper-
level low near 24N63W to the Dominican Republic, then westward to
the Yucatan Peninsula. The upper-trough is enhancing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of the northern
Caribbean Sea from 17N-22N between 72W-85W. Another upper-level
trough axis extends from Puerto Rico southeastward to Suriname.
Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is
noted near where the western end of the ITCZ passes underneath the
upper-level trough, south of 12N and east of 64W, including over
Trinidad. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is
enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 13N and west of
74W, including over SE Nicaragua.

A recent ASCAT satellite pass shows fresh trades across the
south-central Caribbean Sea, where an altimeter pass from 03/0830
UTC showed seas of 7 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds
prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, with
seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate E winds are occurring over the
NW Caribbean, where seas are 3-4 ft.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
south-central Caribbean. Winds will freshen over the eastern
Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
will persist over the northwest Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level low is centered near 23N64W. A surface trough
is near the same area, oriented from 31N63W to 26N65W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 24N-31N between 61W-68W. Recent
scatterometer data shows a surface ridge axis extending across the
Atlantic from a 1025 mb high pressure near 33N39W to Bermuda to
the coast of Florida near 29N81W. Gentle E to SE winds and 2-4 ft
seas generally prevail north of 25N and west of 50W. Moderate
trades and 3-5 ft seas are south of 25N. Moderate to fresh NE
winds prevail across the E Atlantic, east of 35W and north of 25N,
increasing to fresh to strong near the Canary Islands and the
coast of Morocco. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area. Moderate to
locally fresh trades are noted across the tropical Atlantic, to
the east of the Lesser Antilles, with 5-7 ft seas. A cluster of
moderate to strong convection induced by an upper-level trough and
the ITCZ extends eastward from Trinidad, from 08.5N-12N between
59W-63W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along 30N lifting north
of the area will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and
slight to moderate seas over most of the area through Sun. Farther
south, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of
Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during
the late afternoons and overnight hours through late Sun.

$$
Hagen
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