[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 040600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu Aug 4 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 20W from 23N southward, and moving west at 5 to 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 13N between
18W and 22W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 20N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present from 07N to 09N between 30W and 37W.

A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 20N southward to
near the Suriname-French Guiana border, and moving west around 10
kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 07N to 12N
between 50W and 57W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Western Sahara-
Mauritania border across the Cabo Verde Islands to 08N37W.
Scattered showers are noted south of the trough near the coast of
Guinea-Bissau, Guinea and Sierra Leone. An ITCZ continues from
08N37W to 09N51W, then resumes from 09N55W to the coast of
northeastern Venezuela near 09N61W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ fragments.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean
waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough is triggering scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the central and southeastern Gulf, and near
the coast of central Florida. A broad surface ridge extends
southwestward from a 1018 mb high over the northeastern Gulf to
near Tampico, Mexico. It is supporting light to gentle winds and 1
to 2 ft seas for the north-central and northeastern Gulf.
Moderate to locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft
exist along the western Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle
to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the
rest of Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridging will support gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf into early
next week. Fresh E winds will briefly pulse west of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evening hours through mid week due to a
diurnal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level low near the Island of Youth is causing isolated
thunderstorms near the southern coast of Cuba and east coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula. Convergent trades are producing similar
conditions over the southeastern basin near the ABC Islands. Refer
to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
basin. Fresh to strong ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident
at the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Gentle ENE to E
trades and seas at 3 to 4 ft are noted for the northwestern basin.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft
prevail for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the
central Caribbean, while freshen over the eastern Caribbean
through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
persist over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level low north of Pareto Rico near 26N64W is
generating isolated thunderstorms from north of 25N between 62W
and 70W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves
sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda
High is sustaining light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft
north of 23N between 50W and the George-Florida coast. Gentle to
moderate NE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are found farther south from
10N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, and farther east
north of 18N between 25W and 50W. Near the Canary Islands,
Moderate to fresh NNE trades are present north of 23N between the
northwest African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal
and southeasterly winds with 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge related to the Bermuda High
along 30N will lift north of the area through Fri. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will remain
over most of the area through early next week. Fresh to
occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in
the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons
and overnight hours through late Mon.

$$

Chan
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