[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011739
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Aug 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south
of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of
20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from
06N to 09N between 40W and 45W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 69W,
south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is located east of the wave axis, from 13N to 15N between 70W and
73W.

A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 20N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in
the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 11N22W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N45W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm on both sides of the ITCZ and Monsoon
Trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging associated with the western periphery of the
subtropical Atlantic high continues to guide conditions in the
Gulf of Mexico. At 1500 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed in the
Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 19N94W. Scattered moderate
convection is pulsing west of the trough in the SW Gulf to the
coast of Mexico. Another weak surface trough is analyzed in the
NE Gulf. Light to gentle return flow prevails with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the
northern Gulf will continue to support gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the week. Fresh E
winds will pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of
the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depicts an area of strong to near gale
force trades in the south central Caribbean, from 11N to 15N
between 73W and 77W. These winds, combined with fresh trades
across the remainder of the central Caribbean, are generating 8-12
ft seas in E swell from 10N to 17N between 70W and 81W, highest
near 11N78W. In the E Caribbean, trades are moderate to fresh and
seas are 6-8 ft. In the NW Caribbean, trades are gentle to
moderate with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
persist over the central Caribbean into mid-week, then will
diminish slightly. The eastern Caribbean will experience moderate
to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly
gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N70W. A weak stationary
front enters the area near 31N48W and continues to 31N56W. High
pressure ridging dominates the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow across the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft, with lowest
seas in the W Atlantic near the FL Coast and the N Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will prevail along 30N
through Tue, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the
Windward Passage during the late afternoon and overnight hours
through tonight.

$$
Mahoney
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