[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 012319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Mon Aug 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis along 23W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. There is no convection associated with this
wave.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 42W, moving
W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N
between 37W and 47W.

A tropical wave extends S of 16N with axis near 70W, moving W at
15-20 kt. There is no convection associated with this wave.

A tropical wave extends S of 20N with axis near 85W, moving W at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are inland and offshore
Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 11N22W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues
from 08N45W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 90 nm on both sides of the ITCZ and Monsoon
Trough.

GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure ridging associated with the western periphery of the
subtropical Atlantic high continues to guide conditions in the
Gulf of Mexico. At 1500 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed in the
Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 19N94W. Scattered moderate
convection is pulsing west of the trough in the SW Gulf to the
coast of Mexico. Another weak surface trough is analyzed in the
NE Gulf. Light to gentle return flow prevails with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the
northern Gulf will continue to support gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the week. Fresh E
winds will pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of
the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer data depicts an area of strong to near gale
force trades in the south central Caribbean, from 11N to 15N
between 73W and 77W. These winds, combined with fresh trades
across the remainder of the central Caribbean, are generating 8-12
ft seas in E swell from 10N to 17N between 70W and 81W, highest
near 11N78W. In the E Caribbean, trades are moderate to fresh and
seas are 6-8 ft. In the NW Caribbean, trades are gentle to
moderate with 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
persist over the central Caribbean into mid-week, then will
diminish slightly. The eastern Caribbean will experience moderate
to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly
gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N70W. A weak stationary
front enters the area near 31N48W and continues to 31N56W. High
pressure ridging dominates the remainder of the tropical
Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow across the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft, with lowest
seas in the W Atlantic near the FL Coast and the N Bahamas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will prevail along 30N
through Tue, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the
Windward Passage during the late afternoon and overnight hours
through tonight.

$$
Ramos

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