[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010909
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Mon Aug 1 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W, south
of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 11N
to 13N and between 21W and 24W. The northern portion of the wave
is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W, south of
21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 05N
to 08N between 38W and 43W. The northern portion of the wave is
embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 66W,
south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. N significant convection is
evident near the wave axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 81W, south
of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is evident
near the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 21N16W to 18N20W to 13N22W to 08N45W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N40W to 06N55W. Scattered showers are evident on
satellite imagery near the monsoon trough axis between 25W and
35W. Similar convection is also present from 07N to 09N and
between 45W and 60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A scatterometer satellite pass from 0230 UTC indicated moderate to
fresh E winds over the Florida Straits, where seas are estimated
to be 3 to 5 ft. These winds are being enhanced on the northern
end of a tropical wave moving through the western Caribbean, and
following a trough analyzed over the eastern Gulf, reaching northward
toward Cedar Key, Florida. This trough is evidence the ridge that
has been in place over the northern Gulf is weakening, resulting
in mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin with 2
to 4 ft seas. A few showers and thunderstorms linger over the far
southwest Gulf, ahead of a weak moving off the west coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active
in the Big Bend area of Florida in the northeast Gulf, on the
northern end of the trough in that area.

For the forecast, the winds over the Straits of Florida will
diminish through the morning as the tropical wave farther south
continues to move westward. Elsewhere, the weak surface ridging
extending across the northern Gulf will continue to support
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf
through the middle of next week. Fresh E winds will pulse during
the evening hours through mid week west of the Yucatan Peninsula
due to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent ship and buoy observations along with a scatterometer
satellite pass from 0230 UTC indicate a large area of fresh trade
winds across the central Caribbean, with fresh to strong over the
south- central Caribbean off Colombia, and south of Hispaniola.
Seas are estimated to be 8 to 12 ft over this area. The
scatterometer pass also indicated fresh to strong winds over the
west-central Caribbean off the coasts of northeast Nicaragua and
eastern Honduras. The stronger winds are the result of a tightened
pressure gradient between a pair of tropical waves moving across
the basin and the subtropical ridge to the north of the area.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are evident over the eastern
Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate E winds are
noted across the northwest Caribbean, except possibly fresh winds
in the lee of Cuba, where a few showers and thunderstorms are
evident. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active along
and just to the north of the ABC islands in the south-central
Caribbean.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will
persist over the central Caribbean into mid-week, then will diminish
slightly after the tropical waves moved through the basin and the
pressure gradient relaxes. The eastern Caribbean will experience
moderate to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect
mainly gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge extends along roughly 30N west of 60W, anchored by 1024
mb high pressure centered near 30N70W. A scatterometer satellite
pass from 0230 UTC confirmed fresh to strong E winds off the north
coast of Hispaniola, reaching into the northern approaches to the
Windward Passage. Seas in this area are likely 5 to 6 ft.
Elsewhere, moderate E to SE winds are noted south of the ridge
from 22N to 27N west of 60W, with 3 to 5 ft seas. Light breezes
are evident farther north along the ridge axis and eastward to
35W, with 2 to 4 ft. Farther east, a few showers and
thunderstorms are active along a stationary front reaches from
31N48W to 29N53W to 31N58W. Elsewhere between 35W and 60W,
moderate trades and 4 to 6 ft seas south of the ridge, with NE
swell. Saharan air is suppressing significant convection across
the eastern and central Atlantic, except for clusters along the
monsoon trough and ITCZ.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will prevail along 30N
through Tue, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the
Windward Passage during the late afternoon and overnight hours
through tonight.

$$
Christensen
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