[Tropical] Tropical Weather Outlook and Summary

[EMWIN Server]

ABNT20 KNHC 312331
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Aug 31 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of the Leeward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands
have gradually increased in organization over the past day or so.
Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive,
only slight additional development of the system over the next few
days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression.  The
disturbance is forecast to move slowly west-northwestward, toward
the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands.  Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Recent satellite wind data indicate that a broad area of low
pressure is located just to the northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Although shower and thunderstorm activity associated with the
system has diminished since earlier today, there is still a
potential for the system to become a short-lived tropical depression
within the next day or so before environmental conditions become
unfavorable for further development.  Regardless, the system could
bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located about 850 miles west-southwest of
the westernmost Azores has changed little in organization since
earlier today.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression
is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system
drifts generally eastward.  Additional information on this system
can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Brown
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