[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300401
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from
near 20N60W to across the Leeward Islands and to the eastern
Caribbean near 12N65W. This trough will move northwestward over
the eastern and central Caribbean into early next week. The
combination of this trough with enhanced favorable upper-level
dynamics is likely to result in periods of heavy rainfall over
portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic through Sun night. The rains may produce localized
flooding across portions of these islands, particularly in
mountainous terrain. Please consult products issued by your local
or national meteorological service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea
Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 02N27W. The ITCZ continues from
02N27W to the coast of Brazil near 01S45W. Convection is
scattered and moderate within 90 nm of the monsoon trough and
isolated and weak along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough in the NE Gulf is producing scattered moderate
convection from 85W-89W between 24N-30N. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted near the Tampa Bay region at the tail end
of an dissipating stationary boundary. Finally, a few
thunderstorms are observed in the eastern Yucatan Channel. Buoy
observations indicate mainly moderate SE flow across the basin
with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient regime will persist
across the area through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh
E-SE winds will prevail across the Gulf waters through the
forecast period. Fresh to strong nightly pulsing winds are
possible off the Yucatan Peninsula Sun through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Moderate to fresh easterlies dominate the basin with strong NE
winds likely in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and
north of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Colombian Basin, 4-6 ft
in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft
in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trades pulsing across the Windward Passage and
offshore southern Hispaniola tonight through the middle of next
week. Fresh to strong NE winds offshore Colombia tonight will
become moderate to fresh on Sat and continue through the weekend.
Periodic showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue across
the SW Caribbean this weekend into early next week. A surface
trough located across the Leeward Islands will move northwestward
this weekend and into early next week. A surge of fresh to strong
winds will expand over the eastern and central Caribbean late Sat
night through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N55W to
25N71W where it continues as a weak stationary boundary to Miami,
FL. Convection along the front is weak and marine conditions are
generally moderate. The highest ship observation is a 20 kt
easterly wind near the northern Bahamas. Seas are generally 5-7
ft, with an altimeter pass revealing 7-9 ft north of 28N.

In the central Atlantic, a 1022 mb high pressure centered near
29N43W dominates the pattern. Scatterometer data reveals gentle
winds surrounding the high pressure center, gradually increasing
to moderate to fresh south of 18N and east of 22W. In the eastern
Atlantic, strong NE winds are funneling through the gaps in the
Canary Islands. Seas are generally 6-8 ft throughout the central
and eastern basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N56W to
25N71W, becoming stationary and continuing to the coast of south
Florida. The tail-end of the front is expected to dissipate by
tonight. The rest of the cold front will slide southeastward
across the forecast waters while losing strength during the
weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected behind the front
tonight. Seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE swell accompanying the
front will stay N of 28N and E of 70W and is forecast to subside
by Sat. A trough is expected to move northwestward into the waters
south of 25N this weekend into early next week. .

$$
Flynn
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