[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292345
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Apr 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from
near 20N60W to across the Leeward and to the eastern Caribbean
near 14N65W. This trough will move northwestward over the
eastern and central Caribbean into early next week while
accompanied by abundant moisture. The combination of this
trough with enhanced favorable upper-level dynamics is likely
to result in periods of heavy rainfall over portions of the
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic through
Sun night. The rains may produce localized flooding across
portions of these islands. Please consult products issued by your
local or national meteorological service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa through
the coast of Guinea Bissau near 11N15W and continues to
04N20W and to the equator near 27W, where latest scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to near
02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm northwest
of the trough between 17W-21W, and within 60 nm southeast of the
trough between 14W-16W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough extends from near 29N87W to 27N90W, while
relatively weak high pressure is present elsewhere over the
Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring north
of 26N between the trough and 84W. This activity is being aided
by a shortwave trough that is sliding eastward over the easter
Gulf north of 24N. ASCAT data passes and buoy observation
indicate that mainly east to southeast winds are over the area,
with the exception of fresh east to southeast winds over the
eastern Gulf sections. Seas are in the 2-4 ft, except for
slighter higher seas of 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient regime will remain
across the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Winds will be
east to southeast in direction and of moderate to fresh speeds
through early next week. Fresh to strong nocturnal winds are
possible off the Yucatan Peninsula Sun through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7
ft over the south central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the NW Caribbean,
and 3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trades pulsing across the Windward Passage and
offshore southern Hispaniola tonight through the middle of next
week. Fresh to strong northeast winds offshore Colombia tonight
will become moderate to fresh on Sat and continue through the
weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are likely to
continue across the southwestern Caribbean through this weekend.
A surface trough located across the Leeward Islands will move
northwestward this weekend and into early next week. A surge of
fresh to strong winds will expand over the eastern and central
Caribbean late Sat night through at least early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N58W to
27N64W and to 26N70W where it becomes a dissipating stationary
front to near West Palm Beach. Moderate to fresh northwest to
north are northwest of cold front, and moderate to fresh
northeast to east winds are north of the stationary front.
Seas are 6-8 ft in northwest swell northwest of the cold
front to 70W, and 5-8 ft north of the stationary front.
Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are along and near
the stationary front from 26N to 27N west of 78W. Broken to
overcast low and mid-level clouds are along within 180 nm
southeast of the cold front east of 64W and along and
within 60 nm south of the cold front between 64W-70W.

East of the cold front, high pressure is driving the weather
regime over the eastern Atlantic and the rest of the central
Atlantic north of about 20N as it maintains a light to gentle
anticyclonic wind flow over those areas of the Atlantic as noted
in ASCAT data passes from this afternoon. The exception is north
of 19N and east of 20W where moderate to fresh north to northeast
winds are noted in a partial ASCAT data pass. Moderate to fresh
winds are south of 20N. Seas of 6-8 ft prevail over much of the
waters west of 25W, and 5-7 ft east of 25W.

For the forecast west of 65W, the aforementioned cold front
will slide southeastward across the forecast waters while losing
strength during the weekend. The 6-8 ft seas behind the cold
front are forecast to subside by early on Sat as the cold front
reaches from near 31N51W to near 26N62W. A pocket of 6-8 ft seas
is expected to be north of 29N between 56W-69W at that time,
lifting to north of the area by early on Sun. A trough is
expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 25N and
east of 70W this weekend into early next week.

$$
Aguirre
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