[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300934
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat Apr 30 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from
near 22N58W to across the Leeward Islands and to the eastern
Caribbean near 15N65W. The trough will move northwestward over
the eastern and central Caribbean into early next week. The
combination of this trough with enhanced favorable upper-level
dynamics is likely to result in periods of heavy rainfall over
portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic through Sun night. The rains may produce localized
flooding across portions of these islands, particularly in
mountainous terrain. Please consult products issued by your local
or national meteorological service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea
Bissau near 11N15W to 02N26W. The ITCZ continues from 02N26W to
the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered showers are noted
within 90 nm of the boundaries mainly W of 20W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered over the western Atlantic. A surface trough is
analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 24N89W to 20N92W. To the
NE, an area of scattered moderate convection is noted N of 27N and
E of 88W. Latest buoy observations indicate mainly moderate SE
flow across the basin with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the area
through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds
will prevail across the Gulf waters through the forecast period.
Fresh to strong nightly pulsing winds are possible off the Yucatan
Peninsula Sun through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Moderate to fresh easterlies dominate the basin with strong NE
winds likely south of Hispaniola and north of Colombia. Seas are
5-7 ft in the Colombian Basin, 4-6 ft in the remainder of the
central and eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh
to strong trades pulsing across offshore southern Hispaniola
through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE winds
offshore Colombia will continue through the weekend. Periodic
showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue across the SW
Caribbean this weekend into early next week. A surface trough
located across the Leeward Islands will move northwestward this
weekend and into early next week. A surge of fresh to strong
winds will expand over the eastern and central Caribbean Sat
night through Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N54W to
25N72W. Convection along the front is weak and marine conditions
are generally moderate. Fresh winds prevail W of the front with
seas to 9 ft enhanced by a NW swell. To the E, a 1022 mb high
pressure centered near 31N32W. Scatterometer data reveals gentle
winds surrounding the high pressure center, gradually increasing
to moderate to fresh S of 18N and E of 20W. In the eastern
Atlantic, strong NE winds are funneling through the gaps in the
Canary Islands. Seas are generally 6-8 ft throughout the central
and eastern basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will slide
southeastward across the forecast waters while losing strength
during the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected behind
the front tonight. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in N to NW swell
accompanying the front will stay N of 30N and E of 70W and is
forecast to subside by late Sun. A trough is expected to move
northwestward into the waters south of 25N this weekend into early
next week.

$$
ERA
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