[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290417
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Fri Apr 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from
17N58W to the northern Windward Islands and to 11N62W. This
trough will move northwestward over the eastern and central
Caribbean Fri and into early next week pulling plentiful
moisture northward. This trough, enhanced by favorable upper-
level dynamics over the weekend, is likely to produce periods of
heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic from Fri night through Sun night.
The rains may produce localized flooding across portions of
these islands. Please consult products issued by your local or
national meteorological service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from
03N22W to 01S47W along the northern coast of Brazil. Scattered
moderate convection to isolated strong convection is noted from
the coast of Africa to 27W between 02N-08N. Isolated moderate
convection is noted within 120 nm north and 180 nm south of the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging across the basin in leading to mainly gentle
to moderate winds across the basin, with the exception of fresh
easterlies along the west coast of central Florida. Seas are 2-4
ft throughout the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the SE United
States Fri into the weekend. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds will
prevail across the Gulf waters through early next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist in the SW Caribbean
due to abundant atmospheric moisture and divergence aloft.
Isolated showers are also occurring in the eastern Caribbean due
to a surface trough near the Lesser Antilles. Winds are generally
moderate across the basin, with fresh northeasterlies in the
Windward Passage and fresh to strong northeasterlies along the
coast of Colombia. Seas are 5-7 ft in the Colombian Basin and 4-6
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will continue to affect
the Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola during the
next few days. Fresh to strong easterly winds are expected
offshore Colombia tonight and will become moderate to fresh
through the weekend. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are likely
to continue across the SW Caribbean through the weekend.
Northerly swell will propagate through Atlantic waters and
Caribbean passages through Fri night. A surge of fresh to strong
winds will accompany a trough that will move through the eastern
and central Caribbean this weekend into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N61W to near
West Palm Beach, FL. Weak showers are possible along the front,
though most thunderstorms are currently confined to the coastal
waters near south Florida. Winds behind the front are fresh from
the NE with moderate conditions ahead of the front. Seas are
currently 6-8 ft behind the front and 5-7 ft ahead.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N28W to
19N43W. This system has been slowly weakening over the last few
days. Winds are now moderate or less with abating seas of 8-12 ft
from 25W-60W, extending as far south as 16N. In the far eastern
Atlantic, near gale force northerlies along the coast of Morocco
are generating an area of 8-11 ft seas NE of the Canary Islands.
Fresh to strong NE winds are also observed between the Islands and
along the coast of Western Sahara. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by moderate winds and seas below 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the western Atlantic front will
continue to slide southeastward across the forecast waters while
losing strength through early in the weekend. Fresh NE winds are
expected behind the front. Seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE
swell remain east of 65W, forecast to subside by Sat. Northerly
swell producing seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate south,
shifting east-southeast north of 28N through the weekend. A trough
is expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 22N
and east of 70W this weekend into early next week.

$$
Flynn
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