[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291006
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Apr 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from
18N60W to the eastern Caribbean near 13N65W. This trough will
move northwestward over the eastern and central Caribbean Fri and
into early next week while accompanied by abundant moisture. This
trough, enhanced by favorable upper- level dynamics over the
weekend, is likely to produce periods of heavy rainfall over
portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican
Republic from Fri night through Sun night. The rains may produce
localized flooding across portions of these islands. Please
consult products issued by your local or national meteorological
service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and extends to 01N28W. The ITCZ
continues from 01N28W to 01S47W along the northern coast of
Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 02N to 10N and E of 24W to the coast of Africa. Isolated
moderate convection is noted within 150 nm north and 180 nm south
of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging across the basin is leading to mainly gentle
to moderate winds across most of the basin. However, fresh to
locally strong easterlies are noted along the west coast of
central Florida. Seas are 2-4 ft throughout the basin, with 4-5 ft
noted in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, high pressure will extend across the SE United
States through the weekend. The fresh to locally strong winds
occurring in the northeast Gulf will diminish by this afternoon.
Moderate to fresh E-SE winds will prevail across the Gulf waters
through early next week. Fresh to strong nightly pulsing winds
are possible off the Yucatan Peninsula Sun through at least Tue.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist in the SW Caribbean
due to abundant atmospheric moisture and divergence aloft, S of
12N between 76W and 82W. Isolated showers are also occurring in
the eastern Caribbean due to a surface trough near the Lesser
Antilles. Fresh to strong northeasterly winds are noted off the
Colombia coast and within the Windward Passage. Gentle to
moderate tradewinds prevail across the rest of the basin. Seas are
5-7 ft in the Colombian Basin, 2-3 ft in the NW Caribbean and 4-6
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will pulse over the
Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola during the next
few days. Fresh to strong easterly winds offshore Colombia will
become moderate to fresh today and continue through the weekend.
Periodic showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue across
the SW Caribbean through the weekend. Northerly swell will
propagate through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages today
and will subside by tonight. A trough will move across the
eastern and central Caribbean this weekend and into early next
week. A surge of fresh to strong winds will expand over this area
near the trough late Sat night through Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

In the western Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N61W to near
West Palm Beach, FL. Weak showers are possible along the front,
though most thunderstorms persist off the coastal waters near
south Florida. Winds behind the front are fresh from the NE with
moderate conditions ahead of the front. Seas are currently 6-8 ft
behind the front and 5-7 ft ahead.

In the central Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N28W to
26N30W and stalls from that point to 19N43W. This system has been
slowly weakening over the last few days. Winds are now moderate
or less with abating seas of 8-10 ft from 16N-31N and E of 58W.
In the far eastern Atlantic, near gale force northerlies along the
coast of Morocco are generating an area of 8-10 ft seas NE of the
Canary Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds are also observed
between the Islands and along the coast of Western Sahara. The
remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate winds and seas
below 8 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, the tail-end of the western Atlantic
front will dissipate by tonight into Sat. The rest of the cold
front will slide southeastward across the forecast waters while
losing strength during the weekend. Fresh NE winds are expected
behind the front today and will diminish by tonight. Seas of 8 ft
or greater in N to NE swell accompanying the front will stay N of
28N and E of 70W and is forecast to subside by Sat. A trough is
expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 25N and
east of 70W this weekend into early next week.

$$
AReinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net