[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282349
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Apr 29 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The gradient between strong high pressure
of 1030 mb well north of the area near 46N13W and lower pressure
over north Africa is resulting in gale-force northerly winds
near the coast of Morocco, in the Meteo-France marine zone
Agadir. The Gale Warning remains in effect for this area until
late tonight at 29/0300 UTC. Seas of 8-12 ft are expected in this
area. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-
France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and the Dominican Republic: A surface trough extends from
17N58W to the northern Windward Islands and to 11N62W. This
trough will move northwestward over the eastern and central
Caribbean Fri and into early next week pulling plentiful
moisture northward. This trough, enhanced by favorable upper-
level dynamics over the weekend, is likely to produce periods of
heavy rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and the Dominican Republic from Fri night through Sun night.
The rains may produce localized flooding across portions of
these islands. Please consult products issued by your local or
national meteorological service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W to 04N24W, where latest scatterometer data
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to
02N35W and to the northern coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm SE
of the trough between 15W-20W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 24W-28W, and within
30 nm of the ITCZ between 36W-39W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed along a position from near 28N86W to
26N88W and to 24N90W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds
with isolated weak showers are within 120 nm E of the trough
from 26N to 28N. Similar clouds, with possible isolated weak
showers are also seen from 28N to 29N between 85W-87W. Otherwise,
weak ridging generally remains across the rest of the basin.
ASCAT data passes from this afternoon indicates that mainly
gentle easterly winds are present over the basin, except for
fresh winds in the southeastern Gulf, eastern Bay of Campeche
and west-central Gulf areas. Seas throughout are in the 2-4 ft
range.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the southeastern
U.S. on Fri allowing for mainly moderate to fresh E-SE winds to
exist over the Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
potential for heavy rain this weekend for the Virgin Islands,
Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic.

The combination of available abundant moisture that is present
and divergence aloft is resulting in scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection over the southwestern Caribbean Sea,
mainly to the south of 13N and west of 76W. This convection is
located to the north of the east Pacific trough, which is
situated over Panama. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
are seen along and offshore portions of the coast of Venezuela,
including near the ABC Islands. A surface trough extends from
near 17N58W southwestward to the northern Windward Islands and to
11N62W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with
patches of rain and possible scattered showers are near and along
the trough.

ASCAT data from this afternoon depicts mainly moderate E trades
over the majority of the sea including the Gulf of Honduras,
with the exception of north of 15N between 64W-76W where fresh
east trades are present. Latest altimeter data passes and buoy
observations note seas of 3-6 ft north of 15N and east of 85W,
including the vicinity of the Windward Passage and also from 11N
to 15N west of 80W. Higher seas of 6-8 ft are confined to south
of 15N between 72W-76W, including near the coast of Colombia.
Lower seas of 2-4 ft are in the Gulf of Honduras and north of 18N
west of 76W.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean,
with axis roughly oriented east to west roughly along 25N, will
maintain pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across the
Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola during the next few
days. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds will
continue except for gentle winds in the southwestern Caribbean.
Isolated westward moving showers will be possible W of about 71W
through the weekend. Northerly swell will propagate through the
Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through Fri night before
subsiding. The trough that currently extends from near 17N58W to
the northern Windward Islands and to 11N62W will move northwestward
through the eastern and central Caribbean Fri into early next
week. This trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the weekend for portions of the Virgin
Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. A surge of
strong easterly winds will follow in the wake of the trough from
late Sun afternoon through early next week over the central
Caribbean Sea. Seas with this surge are expected to reach 8 or 9
ft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning in the Agadir area near the coast of Morocco.

A cold front extends from near 31N64W to 29N72W and to just
east of Fort Pierce, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are south of the front to near 26N and west of 77W
to South Florida. Fresh NE winds are observed to the north of
the front, mainly west of about 74W, where seas are 6-7 ft. A
1018 mb high pressure center is located near 25N69W. A ridge
extends east from the high to near 61W and west to South
Florida. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis.

A cold front extends from near 31N30W to 25N39W and to 22N30W,
where it becomes stationary to 19N45W. Areas of moderate rain
along with embedded scattered showers and possible isolated
thunderstorms are noted well to the east of the front north
of 28N between 18W-25W. Latest ASCAT data shows strong south
to southwest winds near the cold front north of 25N. Fresh to
strong southwest winds are in between the front and the surface
trough north of 25N. An earlier altimeter pass from 28/1430 UTC
measured seas of 13-15 ft from 26N-31N between 47W-50W. Seas of
12 ft or greater remain north of 26N between 30W-48W. Seas of 8
ft or greater, in primarily north swell, extend as far south as
18N between 25W-65W. To the south, over the tropical Atlantic,
moderate trades are present along with seas of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, seas of 8 ft or greater in a
north to northeast swell east of 65W will subside by late
tonight or early Fri. The cold front extending from 31N64W to
29N72W and to just east of Fort Pierce will move southeastward
across the forecast waters while weakening through Sat. The
fresh northeast winds behind the front will become northeast
to east on Fri and continue through Fri night as they veer
around to the east-southeast. Associated seas of 8 ft or greater
will propagate south of 31N late today and shift east-
southeast, north of 28N through the weekend. A trough that is
over the western part of the tropical north Atlantic waters
and into the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to move
northwestward into the waters south of 22N and east of 70W this
weekend and into early next week.

$$
Aguirre
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