[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281639
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Apr 28 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: The gradient between a 1028 mb high
pressure near 39N16W and lower pressure over north Africa is
producing gale force northerly winds near the coast of Morocco, in
the Meteo-France marine zone Agadir. The Gale Warning remains in
effect for this area until late tonight at 29/0300 UTC. Seas of 8
to 12 ft are expected in this area. Please read the latest High
Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website
http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details.

Potential for heavy rain this weekend over Virgin Islands, Puerto
Rico and Dominican Republic: A surface trough that extends from
17N56W to 11N62W will move northwestward through the eastern and
central Caribbean Fri into early next week, drawing ample moisture
northward. The surface trough, enhanced by favorable upper-level
dynamics over the weekend, is likely to produce periods of heavy
rainfall over portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the
Dominican Republic Fri night through Sun night. The rains may
produce localized flooding across portions of these islands.
Please consult products issued by your local or national
meteorological service for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W to 04N24W. The ITCZ extends from 04N24W to 01N35W to
the northern coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N-05N between 05W and the coast of
South America.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed in the NE Gulf of Mexico from 28N86W
to 25N87W. Scattered showers are near the trough. Weak ridging
prevails across the remainder of the basin. Most of the Gulf is
experiencing gentle winds, except for moderate E winds in the far
NE Gulf and moderate SSE winds off the coast of southern Texas and
NE Mexico. Seas are 2-3 ft across the NE and central Gulf. Seas
are 3-4 ft across the SW and west-central Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will build into the Gulf of
Mexico through the end of the week and into the weekend. Winds
will increase slightly this weekend into early next week as the
pressure gradient across the region tightens.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing scattered
strong convection over the SW Caribbean Sea, mainly south of 13N
and west of 75W. This convection is located to the north of the
east Pacific trough, which is situated over Panama. Scattered
moderate convection is noted along and offshore portions of the
coast of Venezuela, including near the ABC Islands. A surface
trough extends from 17N56W southwestward to 11N62W. Scattered
showers are near the trough. Fresh trades prevail across most of
the central Caribbean between 65W-79W, with moderate winds
elsewhere. Seas are 3-4 ft in the NW Caribbean and 5-6 ft
elsewhere, except 6-8 ft in the south-central to SW Caribbean,
offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean,
oriented along 26N, will maintain pulsing fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds across the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
during the next few days. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds will prevail. Periodic showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to continue affecting the SW Caribbean today.
Northerly swell will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages
through Fri night before subsiding. The trough that currently
extends from 17N56W to 11N62W will move northwestward through the
eastern and central Caribbean Fri into early next week. This
trough will be accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms
over the weekend for portions of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola. A surge of strong easterly wind will
follow in the wake of the trough late Sun through early next week
over the central Caribbean Sea.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning in the Agadir area near the coast of Morocco.

A cold front extends from 31N65W to 29N71W to Cape Canaveral, FL.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are within 60 nm either
side of the front. Fresh NE winds are observed to the north of the
front, mainly west of 75W, where seas are 6-7 ft. A 1018 mb high
pressure near 26N70W is located along a surface ridge that is
oriented east-west along 26N from South Florida to the high to
25N65W to 22N55W. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis.

A cold front extends from 31N31W to 24N37W, where it becomes a
stationary front, which continues to 19N46W. A broad surface
trough trails the front from 31N39W to 25N42W to 21N57W. Scattered
moderate convection is east of the cold front, north of 25N
between 23W-31W. ASCAT shows strong SSW winds near the cold front
north of 25N. Fresh to strong SW winds are in between the front
and the surface trough north of 25N. Fresh W to NW winds are west
of the surface trough, north of 25N and east of 48W. An earlier
altimeter pass from 28/1430 UTC measured seas of 13 to 15 ft from
26N-31N between 47W-50W. Seas of 12 ft or greater currently
prevail north of 26N between 30W-48W. Seas of 8 ft or greater, in
primarily north swell, extend as far south as 18N between 25W-65W.
To the south, over the tropical Atlantic, moderate trades and 5-7
ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, seas of 8 ft or greater in N to NE
swell east of 65W will continue this afternoon, subsiding by late
tonight or early Fri. The cold front extending from 31N65W to
near Cape Canaveral, Florida will move southeastward across the
forecast waters while weakening through the end of the week. Fresh
NE winds are expected to continue behind the front through Fri.
Associated seas of 8 ft or greater will propagate south of 31N
late today and shift east-southeast, north of 28N, through the
weekend. A trough that currently extends from 17N56W to 11N62W is
expected to move northwestward into the waters south of 22N and
east of 70W this weekend into early next week.

$$
Hagen
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